Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise – 17 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 17 · 20:00 Doosan Aréna, Plzeň

Plzen

0–3Full time

Union St. Gilloise

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 53). Absences weigh more on Union St. Gilloise. Plzen had 21.1 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 5 and had to travel 647 km.

Away travel647 kmRest days21.1 · 5Matches / 14d0 · 2

Plzen37%

Draw24%

Union St. Gilloise38%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.50

Plzen35%

Draw26%

Union St. Gilloise39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.38

Plzen34%

Draw25%

Union St. Gilloise41%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.53

Plzen30%

Draw24%

Union St. Gilloise46%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.68

Plzen37%

Draw24%

Union St. Gilloise39%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.50

Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Plzeň)

No weather data yet

RefereeI. Frid

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.63
Matches 8

Team strength

Plzen

Union St. Gilloise

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

54 AttackIn forecast 62

43 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext 85

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Plzen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Plzen

Union St. Gilloise

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.90

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.44 Goals minus xGContext +1.34

60% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.88 ShotsContext 17.30

3.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30

30% On target shareContext 42%

7.63 Shots in the boxContext 13.22

57% Box shareContext 76%

7% ConversionContext 17%

1.33 OffsidesContext 3.11

13.63 Shots allowedContext 11.70

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.60 BlocksContext 3.89

4.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

88% Save rateContext 73%

45% PossessionIn forecast 51%

360 PassesContext 470

275 Accurate passesContext 392

76% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.22

14.20 FoulsContext 11.00

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.11

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Plzen

Rest21.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Union St. Gilloise DWWWW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel647 km99 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 85 · 13 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected

W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
W5 SepA · Charleroi3–21.6 xPts
W2 SepA · St. Truiden3–01.5 xPts
W30 AugH · Anderlecht3–01.8 xPts
D15 AugH · Zulte Waregem0–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Plzen	Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 27 Aug	5Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	647 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	99 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	28	2.7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Plzen Confirmed XI

5-4-1

44F. Wiegele(G)

19C. Souaré 5K. Spáčil 3D. Vavro 2T. Pališčák 99Amar Memić

9D. Višinský 17P. Hrošovský 36S. Pirgic 12A. Sojka

80P. Adu

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

12H. Koffi(G)

80O. Kričfaluši 29M. Sylla 55Nikki Havenaar

11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 17R. Schoofs 27L. Patris

23B. Zeneli

9Mateo Biondic 38R. Mofokeng

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Plzen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Union St. Gilloise Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Plzen+2.9 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Union St. Gilloise-2.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Plzen · Home No home games yet this season.

Union St. Gilloise · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Plzen	Union St. Gilloise	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.96
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	57%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	60%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Plzen	Union St. Gilloise	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	2.90
Conceded per game	0.90	1.00
Match goals	2.10	3.90	2.96
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	80%	57%
Over 3.5	20%	60%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	60%
Clean sheets	40%	50%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Plzen	Union St. Gilloise	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.70
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.10
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Plzen	Union St. Gilloise	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	4.67
Corners conceded	4.78	4.56
Match total	9.78	9.23	10.70
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.70	2.30
Opponent cards	3.50	1.80
Match total	6.20	4.10	3.10
Over 3.5	100% 10/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · I. Frid 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.88league 3.27

Red cards0.00league 0.00

Cards 5+25%league 45%

Fouls21.0league 25.0

Penalties0.63league 0.09

Home wins75%league 45%

Plzen

No previous matches with this referee.

Union St. Gilloise

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.