PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were clear favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 22). PSV Eindhoven usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. PSV Eindhoven had 6.2 days of rest, Groningen 6.9 and had to travel 211 km.
Away travel211 kmRest days6.2 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
PSV Eindhoven81%
Draw13%
Groningen6%
PSV Eindhoven79%
Draw14%
Groningen7%
PSV Eindhoven81%
Draw13%
Groningen6%
PSV Eindhoven75%
Draw16%
Groningen9%
PSV Eindhoven79%
Draw14%
Groningen7%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 81
Team strength
PSV Eindhoven
Groningen
77
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
60
AttackIn forecast
41
64
DefenceIn forecast
21
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGroningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenGroningen
4.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.82
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+2.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.68
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.50
ShotsContext
9.00
8.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
43%
On target shareContext
72%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
61%
Box shareContext
61%
22%
ConversionContext
17%
2.50
OffsidesContext
—
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
88%
Save rateContext
60%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
568
PassesContext
415
487
Accurate passesContext
319
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
7.37
Team ratingContext
6.62
10.00
FoulsContext
10.50
6.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
2.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.87
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
21.10
ShotsContext
11.30
8.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
40%
On target shareContext
42%
14.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
68%
Box shareContext
55%
16%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.20
9.00
Shots allowedContext
11.80
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.89
BlocksContext
2.10
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
68%
Save rateContext
55%
65%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
569
PassesContext
418
492
Accurate passesContext
334
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.38
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.40
FoulsContext
9.70
6.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km261 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Groningen
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel211 km277 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Groningen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 16 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 211 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 261 km | 277 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
8S. Dest
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
34I. Saibari
22J. Schouten
20G. Til
7R. van Bommel
5I. Perišić
27D. Man
Groningen
Confirmed XI
21H. Jurjus(G)
43M. Peersman
4D. Janse
3T. Blokzijl
5M. Rente
6S. Resink
8T. de Jonge
14J. Schreuders
10Y. Taha
26T. van Bergen
9B. Willumsson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Groningen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Groningen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 6.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Groningen · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 PSV Eindhoven wins0 draws0 Groningen wins
Goals per game4.00 – 0.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 5 Apr 2025Groningen1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 23 Nov 2024PSV Eindhoven5–0Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 4.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 13.50 | 9.00 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 5.00 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Groningen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.33 | 2.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 7.40 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 3.60 | 3.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 81 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.44league 3.32
Red cards0.12league 0.11
Cards 5+28%league 32%
Fouls21.5league 21.5
Penalties0.22league 0.16
Home wins43%league 53%
PSV Eindhoven9 with this referee
Record8-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- W11 May 25A · Feyenoord3–23
- W24 Apr 25A · Twente3–13
- W8 Mar 25H · Heerenveen2–12
- D11 Jan 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–20
- W1 Dec 24A · Utrecht5–24
Groningen3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Jan 25H · Heerenveen1–00
- W9 Nov 24H · Sparta Rotterdam1–01
- D14 Sep 24H · Feyenoord2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven2 games · scored 8 · conceded 1
2
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Groningen2 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 33 · conceded 10
6
3
0-15
6
16-30
6
2
31-45
7
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 24
2
6
0-15
2
6
16-30
5
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
