PSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 68 pts · 28 played
WWWLL
First leg2–1
4–3Full time
Utrecht
7th · 41 pts · 28 played
DWDWW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Utrecht. PSV Eindhoven had 12.9 days of rest, Utrecht 13 and had to travel 76 km.
Away travel76 kmRest days12.9 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
PSV Eindhoven56%
Draw22%
Utrecht21%
PSV Eindhoven67%
Draw20%
Utrecht13%
PSV Eindhoven57%
Draw23%
Utrecht21%
PSV Eindhoven48%
Draw24%
Utrecht27%
PSV Eindhoven54%
Draw24%
Utrecht22%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Eindhoven)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 99
Team strength
PSV EindhovenUtrecht
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
60
AttackIn forecast
32
64
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
PSV EindhovenUtrecht
2.79
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.32
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
2.00
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.79
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
96%
Scored inContext
82%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
17.46
ShotsContext
14.29
7.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.93
41%
On target shareContext
35%
12.21
Shots in the boxContext
9.68
70%
Box shareContext
67%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.05
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.32
Shots allowedContext
11.71
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.39
3.70
BlocksContext
3.73
2.84
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
68%
Save rateContext
73%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
548
PassesContext
394
475
Accurate passesContext
313
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.96
FoulsContext
10.89
8.43
Fouls sufferedContext
10.82
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.98
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
100%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.30
ShotsContext
12.60
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
40%
On target shareContext
39%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.25
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.38
BlocksContext
3.43
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
67%
Save rateContext
79%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
540
PassesContext
376
462
Accurate passesContext
292
86%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.94
9.50
FoulsContext
10.60
8.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
PSV Eindhoven
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km253 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel76 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| PSV Eindhoven |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 13Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 76 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 253 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
22J. Schouten
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
25K. Sildillia
34I. Saibari
10P. Wanner
23J. Veerman
5I. Perišić
20G. Til
27D. Man
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
3M. van der Hoorn
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
16S. El Karouani
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
23N. Vesterlund
10Y. Cathline
18A. Stepanov
77Ángel Alarcón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- PSV Eindhoven-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Utrecht+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
PSV Eindhoven · Home
2.29points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-2-2
- Scored
- 3.07
- Conceded
- 1.50
Utrecht · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | PSV Eindhoven | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | L 2–3 HW 5–3 A | W 3–1 AW 1–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 2–1 HW 5–1 A | W 2–0 HL 1–4 A |
| Heracles | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H | D 0–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Heerenveen | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| FC Volendam | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Groningen | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Feyenoord | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| NAC Breda | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 4–0 A | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Twente | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 6–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 65 of 81 · 2.41 per game | 41 of 81 · 1.52 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 PSV Eindhoven wins2 draws0 Utrecht wins
Goals per game2.40 – 1.20
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 21 Dec 2025Utrecht1–2PSV Eindhoven
- 15 Feb 2025PSV Eindhoven2–2Utrecht
- 1 Dec 2024Utrecht2–5PSV Eindhoven
- 21 Jan 2024Utrecht1–1PSV Eindhoven
- 12 Aug 2023PSV Eindhoven2–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| PSV Eindhoven | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.79 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.32 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 4.11 | 2.61 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 46% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 54% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 61% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 18% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.40 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 30% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| PSV Eindhoven | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.25 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 11.39 | 9.56 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 23/28 | 60% 15/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 82% 23/28 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 61% 17/28 | 36% 9/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.36 | 1.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 3.04 | 3.39 | 3.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 8/28 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/28 | 18% 5/28 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.80 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 10.56 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 99 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 3.21
Red cards0.11league 0.17
Cards 5+42%league 27%
Fouls23.1league 21.4
Penalties0.29league 0.24
Home wins49%league 45%
PSV Eindhoven12 with this referee
Record6-4-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W6 Dec 25A · Heerenveen2–00
- W9 Nov 25A · AZ Alkmaar5–11
- D21 Sep 25H · Ajax2–21
- W18 May 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–12
- L30 Mar 25H · Ajax0–20
Utrecht11 with this referee
Record4-5-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- W14 Feb 26A · Groningen2–11
- W2 Nov 25H · NEC Nijmegen1–01
- D6 Apr 25A · GO Ahead Eagles2–24
- D15 Feb 25A · PSV Eindhoven2–22
- D4 Dec 24A · Ajax2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
PSV Eindhoven28 games · scored 78 · conceded 37
13
3
0-15
15
4
16-30
14
11
31-45
12
3
46-60
9
11
61-75
15
5
76-90
Utrecht28 games · scored 42 · conceded 31
4
5
0-15
4
4
16-30
11
4
31-45
9
7
46-60
7
3
61-75
7
8
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
4
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
3
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
