RAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (26 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for RAAL La Louvière. RAAL La Louvière had 7.8 days of rest, KV Mechelen 6.9 and had to travel 63 km.
Away travel63 kmRest days7.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
RAAL La Louvière38%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen35%
RAAL La Louvière38%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen36%
RAAL La Louvière38%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen35%
RAAL La Louvière32%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen42%
RAAL La Louvière39%
Draw26%
KV Mechelen35%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (La Louvière)
No weather data yet
RefereeAnthony Letellier
- Cards per match 2.3
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 9
Team strength
RAAL La Louvière
KV Mechelen
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
15
AttackIn forecast
18
15
DefenceIn forecast
23
16
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RAAL La LouvièreKV Mechelen
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.33
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
67%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.67
ShotsContext
9.67
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
41%
On target shareContext
21%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
53%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
3.33
OffsidesContext
2.50
17.00
Shots allowedContext
14.33
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
5.00
BlocksContext
2.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
57%
Save rateContext
68%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
342
PassesContext
428
262
Accurate passesContext
335
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.65
13.00
FoulsContext
11.33
9.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
0.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.70
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.68
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
50%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.80
ShotsContext
8.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.44
32%
On target shareContext
25%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.11
72%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.90
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.30
BlocksContext
3.22
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
48%
Save rateContext
63%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
340
PassesContext
399
264
Accurate passesContext
312
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.64
11.30
FoulsContext
9.60
10.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
RAAL La Louvière
LLL
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km198 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 0 pts vs 4.6 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| RAAL La Louvière |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 21 Aug | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 22 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 63 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 198 km | 137 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
25D. Lamego
33P. Nkoa
4Wagane Faye
5T. Lutonda
48I. Coulibaly
29M. Courcoul
18S. Delos
30Z. Gruber
9E. Filet
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
44M. Eerdhuijzen
2L. Marijnissen
17C. Van Meirvenne
26D. Praet
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
27K. Van Rafelghem
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
RAAL La Louvière · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
KV Mechelen · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | RAAL La Louvière | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | L 0–2 A | D 3–3 H |
| Gent | L 1–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 RAAL La Louvière wins0 draws2 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 22 Feb 2026RAAL La Louvière0–2KV Mechelen
- 30 Aug 2025KV Mechelen3–2RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| RAAL La Louvière | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| RAAL La Louvière | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| RAAL La Louvière | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.67 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 5.67 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 0.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 1.33 | 2.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| RAAL La Louvière | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 6.60 | 10.16 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Anthony Letellier 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.33league 2.20
Red cards0.00league 0.12
Cards 5+11%league 16%
Fouls19.7league 21.0
Penalties0.11league 0.32
Home wins44%league 56%
RAAL La Louvière2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Dec 25A · KVC Westerlo1–20
- D28 Sep 25A · Dender0–03
KV MechelenNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RAAL La Louvière3 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
KV Mechelen3 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 12 · conceded 24
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
3
4
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 10 · conceded 27
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
