Racing Santander
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Alaves were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Alaves. Racing Santander had 6.8 days of rest, Alaves 5.8 and had to travel 115 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel115 kmRest days6.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Racing Santander35%
Draw25%
Alaves40%
Racing Santander39%
Draw26%
Alaves35%
Racing Santander36%
Draw25%
Alaves39%
Racing Santander28%
Draw24%
Alaves48%
Racing Santander35%
Draw25%
Alaves40%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Santander)
23°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 25 km/h
- Humidity 63%
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 46
Team strength
Racing Santander
Alaves
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
42
AttackIn forecast
48
22
DefenceIn forecast
55
40
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Racing SantanderAlaves
1.75
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+1.01
75%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.25
ShotsContext
13.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
36%
On target shareContext
37%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.75
63%
Box shareContext
56%
16%
ConversionContext
19%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.67
14.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
6.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.25
BlocksContext
2.50
5.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
67%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
410
PassesContext
321
332
Accurate passesContext
259
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
7.03
15.00
FoulsContext
14.50
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.86
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
80%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.50
ShotsContext
12.10
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
45%
On target shareContext
39%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
66%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.30
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.25
3.40
BlocksContext
2.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
65%
Save rateContext
77%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
429
PassesContext
307
355
Accurate passesContext
241
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.88
14.40
FoulsContext
13.60
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Racing Santander
DLWL
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km678 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 40 · 4 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Alaves
WDWW
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel115 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +4.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Racing Santander |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8La Liga 2026-2027, 5 Sep | 5.8La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 115 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 678 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Racing Santander
Confirmed XI
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas
24J. Belocian
5Pablo Ramón
2Álvaro Mantilla
18M. Prati
23Iván Martín
10Iñigo Vicente
20Sergio Canales
15Pablo García
21M. Zabiri
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
17Jonny
16V. Koski
14F. Tenaglia
21A. Rebbach
4Denis Suárez
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
7Ángel Pérez
9M. Díaz
15L. Boyé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Racing Santander
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Racing Santander-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Alaves+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Racing Santander · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Alaves · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Racing Santander | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Racing Santander | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 3.25 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Racing Santander | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.75 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.75 | 2.90 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Racing Santander | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.75 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.25 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 15.00 | 10.75 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 4/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Racing Santander | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 11.90 | 10.70 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.10 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.54league 4.29
Red cards0.20league 0.26
Cards 5+28%league 48%
Fouls24.7league 24.6
Penalties0.37league 0.31
Home wins50%league 50%
Racing SantanderNo previous matches with this referee.
Alaves3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W25 Apr 26H · Mallorca2–12
- W6 Dec 25H · Real Sociedad1–02
- W24 Nov 23H · Granada CF3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Racing Santander4 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Alaves4 games · scored 10 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
3
4
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
