Racing Santander
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Racing Santander were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Racing Santander. Racing Santander had 5 days of rest, Elche 4.9 and had to travel 635 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel635 kmRest days5 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Racing Santander51%
Draw23%
Elche26%
Racing Santander46%
Draw25%
Elche29%
Racing Santander51%
Draw23%
Elche25%
Racing Santander43%
Draw25%
Elche32%
Racing Santander51%
Draw24%
Elche25%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Santander)
23°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 18 km/h
- Humidity 64%
Referee · SpainCarlos Muniz Munoz
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 11
Team strength
Racing Santander
Elche
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
42
AttackIn forecast
39
22
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Racing SantanderElche
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.36
-0.59
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
9.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
26%
On target shareContext
44%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
69%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
6%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.00
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
71%
Save rateContext
40%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
423
PassesContext
539
345
Accurate passesContext
458
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.28
15.50
FoulsContext
12.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
2.09
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
80%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.00
ShotsContext
9.60
7.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
47%
On target shareContext
37%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.22
70%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.29
11.60
Shots allowedContext
10.50
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
2.90
BlocksContext
2.44
2.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
66%
Save rateContext
60%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
443
PassesContext
472
371
Accurate passesContext
401
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.79
14.40
FoulsContext
14.00
14.90
Fouls sufferedContext
15.30
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Racing Santander
DL
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km703 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 1 pts vs 2.4 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Racing Santander |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug | 4.9La Liga 2026-2027, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 635 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 703 km | 1,722 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 10.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Racing Santander
Confirmed XI
13Julen Agirrezabala(G)
17Jorge Salinas
16F. González
4Manu Hernando
2Álvaro Mantilla
8G. Puerta
23Iván Martín
10Iñigo Vicente
20Sergio Canales
11Andrés Martín
21M. Zabiri
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
11Germán Valera
6Bigas
23Víctor Chust
22D. Affengruber
2Buba Sangaré
29Ali Houary
8Marc Aguado
12Gonzalo Villar
10F. Buonanotte
14Fer Niño
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Racing Santander
Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Racing Santander-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Elche+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Racing Santander · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Elche · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Racing Santander | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Racing Santander | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 2 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Racing Santander | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 9.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 15.00 | 6.00 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.50 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Racing Santander | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.11 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.44 | 9.94 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.70 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Muniz Munoz Spain · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 4.55
Red cards0.27league 0.25
Cards 5+36%league 55%
Fouls25.0league 25.8
Penalties0.18league 0.45
Home wins27%league 40%
Racing Santander1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D21 Sep 25A · Cordoba2–23
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Racing Santander2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Elche2 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Racing Santander10 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
3
3
0-15
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
