Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alaves. Rayo Vallecano had 5 days of rest, Alaves 5.1 and had to travel 295 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel295 kmRest days5 · 5.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rayo Vallecano44%
Draw25%
Alaves31%
Rayo Vallecano50%
Draw25%
Alaves26%
Rayo Vallecano44%
Draw25%
Alaves31%
Rayo Vallecano37%
Draw25%
Alaves38%
Rayo Vallecano44%
Draw25%
Alaves31%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leganés)
27°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 11 km/h
- Humidity 38%
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 45
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
61
AttackIn forecast
48
60
DefenceIn forecast
55
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlaves
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoAlaves
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
—
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
—
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
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On target shareContext
—
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
—
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ConversionContext
—
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OffsidesContext
—
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
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BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
—
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
—
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
—
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.90
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
90%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.50
ShotsContext
13.30
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
37%
On target shareContext
36%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
56%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.60
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
3.60
BlocksContext
3.00
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
76%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
395
PassesContext
331
320
Accurate passesContext
261
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.74
15.90
FoulsContext
13.10
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
3.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
L
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel11 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 0 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
- L15 AugA · Sevilla1–21.4 xPts
Alaves
W
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel295 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 3 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
- W15 AugH · Getafe3–01.6 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Alaves |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 5.1La Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 11 km | 295 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 781 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
33Jozhua Vertrouwd
22Pelayo Fernández
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
6P. Ciss
21Fran Pérez
8Unai López
7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
10Sergio Camello
Alaves
Confirmed XI
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach
17Jonny
16V. Koski
14F. Tenaglia
7Ángel Pérez
18Mikel Rodríguez
8Antonio Blanco
19Pablo Ibáñez
11Toni Martínez
15L. Boyé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alaves
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Alaves+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
No home games yet this season.
Alaves · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Rayo Vallecano wins0 draws2 Alaves wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.38
Over 2.513%
Both scored13%
Clean sheets63% · 25%
- 23 May 2026Alaves1–2Rayo Vallecano
- 26 Oct 2025Rayo Vallecano1–0Alaves
- 29 Mar 2025Alaves0–2Rayo Vallecano
- 26 Oct 2024Rayo Vallecano1–0Alaves
- 10 Mar 2024Alaves1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 15 Sep 2023Rayo Vallecano2–0Alaves
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Alaves | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 8.00 | 8.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 8.00 | 6.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Alaves | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 10.80 | 8.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.50 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 6.10 | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.29league 5.50
Red cards0.29league 0.33
Cards 5+47%league 67%
Fouls25.0league 29.0
Penalties0.20league 0.50
Home wins40%league 67%
Rayo Vallecano6 with this referee
Record1-1-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 Apr 26H · Elche1–00
- L25 May 24H · Athletic Club0–11
- L10 Mar 24A · Alaves0–12
- L11 Feb 24A · Mallorca1–20
- D25 Nov 23H · Barcelona1–13
Alaves5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W17 May 26A · Oviedo1–01
- L11 May 25A · Athletic Club0–11
- D10 May 24H · Girona2–23
- W10 Mar 24H · Rayo Vallecano1–02
- L9 Dec 23H · Las Palmas0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano1 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Alaves1 games · scored 3 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
