Rayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rayo Vallecano were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rayo Vallecano had 5.8 days of rest, Osasuna 6.8 and had to travel 317 km.
Away travel317 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw27%
Osasuna30%
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw27%
Osasuna31%
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw28%
Osasuna30%
Rayo Vallecano35%
Draw28%
Osasuna37%
Rayo Vallecano42%
Draw27%
Osasuna31%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 2.6
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 10
Team strength
Rayo Vallecano
Osasuna
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
61
AttackIn forecast
50
60
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Rayo VallecanoOsasuna
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.05
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
50%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.05
ShotsContext
10.70
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.83
57%
Box shareContext
69%
6%
ConversionContext
10%
2.47
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.95
3.35
BlocksContext
3.22
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
67%
Save rateContext
75%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
430
PassesContext
378
357
Accurate passesContext
301
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.95
FoulsContext
12.60
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.45
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.90
ShotsContext
11.90
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
32%
On target shareContext
32%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
51%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.40
10.80
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.80
BlocksContext
2.89
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
56%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
426
PassesContext
358
353
Accurate passesContext
282
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.84
14.10
FoulsContext
13.30
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rayo Vallecano
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel317 km757 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rayo Vallecano |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 317 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 930 km | 757 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
6P. Ciss
24F. Lejeune
22A. Espino
4Pedro Díaz
23Óscar Valentín
18Álvaro García
7Isi Palazón
14Carlos Martín
19Jorge de Frutos
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
5Jorge Herrando
22F. Boyomo
19V. Rosier
8Iker Muñoz
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rayo Vallecano
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rayo Vallecano+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Osasuna+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Rayo Vallecano · Home
1.33points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-6-1
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 0.67
Osasuna · Away
0.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-8
- Scored
- 0.30
- Conceded
- 1.30
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Getafe | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Elche | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Betis | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Real Madrid | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–4 A | L 1–2 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 H |
| Levante | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 A | L 1–3 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Barcelona | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Girona | W 3–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 22 of 57 · 1.16 per game | 19 of 57 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Rayo Vallecano wins1 draws5 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.44
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets0% · 44%
- 14 Sep 2025Osasuna2–0Rayo Vallecano
- 19 Jan 2025Osasuna1–1Rayo Vallecano
- 16 Sep 2024Rayo Vallecano3–1Osasuna
- 20 Apr 2024Rayo Vallecano2–1Osasuna
- 15 Dec 2023Osasuna1–0Rayo Vallecano
- 14 Apr 2023Rayo Vallecano2–1Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.05 | 2.25 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 65% | |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 35% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 40% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.53 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 7.53 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 16/20 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 12/20 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 11/20 | 6% 1/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.05 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.75 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 14/20 | 80% 16/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 12/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Rayo Vallecano | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 2.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 7.89 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.30 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 5.20 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.60league 4.20
Red cards0.00league 0.29
Cards 5+20%league 48%
Fouls26.0league 24.5
Penalties0.20league 0.36
Home wins90%league 47%
Rayo Vallecano1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W19 Oct 25A · Levante3–01
Osasuna1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Aug 25A · Espanyol0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano20 games · scored 16 · conceded 25
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
3
7
76-90
Osasuna19 games · scored 21 · conceded 24
4
0-15
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
5
46-60
2
8
61-75
7
5
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Osasuna9 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
0-15
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
