Real Betis vs Alaves – 22 Aug 2025

La Liga Gameweek 2 Fri, Aug 22 · 20:30 Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla

Real Betis 10th · 1 pts · 1 played D

1–0Full time

Alaves 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Betis were slight favourites.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 49). Absences weigh more on Real Betis. Real Betis had 4 days of rest, Alaves 6 and had to travel 669 km.

Away travel669 kmRest days4 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real Betis51%

Draw26%

Alaves23%

Expected goals 1.58 – 0.98

Real Betis54%

Draw25%

Alaves22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Real Betis52%

Draw26%

Alaves22%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.96

Real Betis43%

Draw28%

Alaves29%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.10

Real Betis52%

Draw25%

Alaves23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.05

Over 2.5 47% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 25

Team strength

Real Betis

Alaves

65 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

72 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

79 AttackIn forecast 48

59 DefenceIn forecast 55

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Alaves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Betis

Alaves

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

100% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.90 ShotsContext 10.80

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

38% On target shareContext 32%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.38

60% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 7%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.63

13.20 Shots allowedContext 10.50

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.67

3.60 BlocksContext 3.00

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

64% Save rateContext 83%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

460 PassesContext 356

396 Accurate passesContext 271

86% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.99

12.30 FoulsContext 17.20

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Betis

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Alaves

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel669 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Betis	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Aug	6La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	669 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	946 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	5	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

25Pau López(G)

23J. Firpo 4Natan 5Marc Bartra 2Héctor Bellerín

8Pablo Fornals 6Sergi Altimira

17Rodrigo Riquelme 20G. Lo Celso 24Aitor Ruibal

19C. Hernández

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Alaves Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Antonio Sivera(G)

24Víctor Parada 14F. Tenaglia 2F. Garcés 17Jonny

10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez 7Carlos Vicente

11Toni Martínez 18Jon Guridi

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Betis Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Alaves Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Betis-1.8 pp
Draw+0.5 pp
Alaves+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Betis · Home No home games yet this season.

Alaves · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Real Betis wins3 draws1 Alaves wins

Goals per game1.38 – 0.75 Over 2.538% Both scored38% Clean sheets63% · 25%

18 Jan 2025Real Betis1–3Alaves
25 Aug 2024Alaves0–0Real Betis
18 Feb 2024Real Betis0–0Alaves
8 Oct 2023Alaves1–1Real Betis
18 Jan 2022Real Betis4–0Alaves
18 Oct 2021Alaves0–1Real Betis

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Betis	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	2.56
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Real Betis	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.00
Match goals	2.00	3.00	2.56
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	47%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Betis	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	10.00
Corners conceded	1.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	11.00	9.00
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	0.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	2.00	1.00	3.56
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Real Betis	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	5.70
Corners conceded	4.90	5.10
Match total	10.20	10.80	9.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.80
Opponent cards	2.30	2.10
Match total	4.10	4.90	3.56
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 25 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 2.90

Red cards0.28league 0.50

Cards 5+44%league 30%

Fouls24.2league 22.9

Penalties0.24league 0.40

Home wins32%league 50%

Real Betis5 with this referee

Record2-2-1 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2 Pens for · against0 · 1

D11 May 25H · Osasuna1–13
L3 Jan 24A · Celta Vigo1–22
W4 Nov 23H · Mallorca2–01
D24 Sep 23H · Cadiz1–12
W13 Aug 23A · Villarreal2–13

Alaves2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D20 Apr 25A · Sevilla1–12
W26 Jan 24A · Almeria3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.