Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Real Betis had 3 days of rest, Elche 3.3 and had to travel 473 km.
Away travel473 kmRest days3 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Betis53%
Draw24%
Elche22%
Real Betis59%
Draw23%
Elche18%
Real Betis54%
Draw24%
Elche21%
Real Betis45%
Draw26%
Elche29%
Real Betis54%
Draw24%
Elche22%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIsidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 40
Team strength
Real Betis
Elche
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
79
AttackIn forecast
39
59
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisElche
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.31
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
89%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.89
ShotsContext
10.74
4.66
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.03
34%
On target shareContext
36%
8.23
Shots in the boxContext
7.69
58%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.13
11.86
Shots allowedContext
13.94
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
3.06
BlocksContext
3.80
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.21
75%
Save rateContext
67%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
462
PassesContext
495
392
Accurate passesContext
426
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.49
FoulsContext
12.74
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.06
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.09
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.60
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
40%
On target shareContext
39%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
50%
Box shareContext
77%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.63
9.50
Shots allowedContext
12.80
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.60
BlocksContext
3.30
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
80%
Save rateContext
63%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
497
PassesContext
473
427
Accurate passesContext
406
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.87
10.40
FoulsContext
13.80
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.70
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,482 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Elche
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel473 km1,622 km in 14d
Schedule load19%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 19 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 9 May | 3.3La Liga 2025-2026, 9 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 473 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,482 km | 1,622 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
23J. Firpo
16Valentín Gómez
3Diego Llorente
2Héctor Bellerín
20G. Lo Celso
14S. Amrabat
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
19C. Hernández
7Antony
Elche
Confirmed XI
1M. Dituro(G)
21L. Pétrot
22D. Affengruber
42Buba Sangaré
11Germán Valera
14Aleix Febas
8Marc Aguado
12Gonzalo Villar
39Héctor Fort
9André Silva
19G. Diangana
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis-1.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Elche+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.76points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-6-3
- Scored
- 1.76
- Conceded
- 1.00
Elche · Away
0.41points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-12
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Real Madrid | D 1–1 HL 1–5 A | L 1–4 AD 2–2 H |
| Girona | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AW 4–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Points | 53 of 102 · 1.56 per game | 38 of 102 · 1.12 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Real Betis wins2 draws1 Elche wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.86
Over 2.557%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets29% · 14%
- 18 Aug 2025Elche1–1Real Betis
- 24 Feb 2023Elche2–3Real Betis
- 15 Aug 2022Real Betis3–0Elche
- 19 Apr 2022Real Betis0–1Elche
- 21 Nov 2021Elche0–3Real Betis
- 4 Apr 2021Elche1–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 1.31 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 2.86 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 60% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 66% | 71% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 14% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Real Betis | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.26 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.03 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 9.29 | 8.37 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 19/34 | 46% 16/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 15/34 | 37% 13/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 26% 9/34 | 23% 8/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.91 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.49 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.52 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 22/35 | 74% 26/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 49% 17/35 | 49% 17/35 | |
| Real Betis | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 9.10 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.78league 4.28
Red cards0.30league 0.27
Cards 5+60%league 47%
Fouls25.9league 24.5
Penalties0.28league 0.36
Home wins33%league 48%
Real Betis3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W15 Feb 26A · Mallorca2–13
- L31 Aug 25H · Athletic Club1–20
- D25 May 24A · Real Madrid0–01
Elche2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L3 Jan 26H · Villarreal1–33
- D7 Nov 25H · Real Sociedad1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis35 games · scored 54 · conceded 43
4
10
0-15
11
6
16-30
9
8
31-45
10
6
46-60
9
5
61-75
11
8
76-90
Elche35 games · scored 46 · conceded 54
6
11
0-15
6
5
16-30
5
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
11
7
61-75
10
18
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
