Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Betis were slight favourites.
Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Real Betis had 8.9 days of rest, Oviedo 7.1 and had to travel 665 km.
Away travel665 kmRest days8.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Betis56%
Draw25%
Oviedo19%
Real Betis64%
Draw21%
Oviedo15%
Real Betis56%
Draw25%
Oviedo18%
Real Betis49%
Draw27%
Oviedo24%
Real Betis57%
Draw24%
Oviedo19%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 20
Team strength
Real Betis
Oviedo
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
79
AttackIn forecast
23
59
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisOviedo
1.48
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.79
1.24
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
88%
Scored inContext
52%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
14.00
ShotsContext
9.48
4.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.18
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.03
58%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.37
11.73
Shots allowedContext
14.27
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.69
3.03
BlocksContext
3.81
3.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.32
74%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
465
PassesContext
383
395
Accurate passesContext
313
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.77
10.61
FoulsContext
12.76
13.09
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.91
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
10.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
38%
On target shareContext
39%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
53%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.83
8.10
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.22
2.30
BlocksContext
4.44
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
82%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
522
PassesContext
402
450
Accurate passesContext
327
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.79
11.40
FoulsContext
13.40
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,819 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Oviedo
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel665 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9La Liga 2025-2026, 24 Apr | 7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 26 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 665 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,819 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
12R. Rodríguez
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
2Héctor Bellerín
20G. Lo Celso
14S. Amrabat
8Pablo Fornals
10A. Ezzalzouli
19C. Hernández
7Antony
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
12Dani Calvo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
15T. Fernandez
11S. Colombatto
23N. Fonseca
7I. Chaira
9Federico Viñas
5Alberto Reina
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Oviedo+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
1.69points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-6-3
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.06
Oviedo · Away
0.63points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-10
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 2.13
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | D 1–1 HL 1–5 A | L 0–3 H |
| Girona | W 3–2 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Osasuna | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 0–0 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 AW 4–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Sevilla | D 2–2 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Alaves | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 3–5 H | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 3–1 H | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Levante | D 2–2 A | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 49 of 96 · 1.53 per game | 27 of 96 · 0.84 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Real Betis wins1 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 10 Jan 2026Oviedo1–1Real Betis
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.48 | 0.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.24 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.73 | 2.33 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 39% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 36% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 48% | |
| Games | 33 | 33 |
| Real Betis | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.28 | 3.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.09 | 5.58 | |
| Match total | 9.37 | 9.35 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 18/32 | 58% 18/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 47% 15/32 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 9/32 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.94 | 2.24 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.58 | 1.55 | |
| Match total | 4.52 | 3.79 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 21/33 | 48% 16/33 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 16/33 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Real Betis | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 9.76 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.10 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 4.28
Red cards0.15league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls24.7league 24.5
Penalties0.35league 0.36
Home wins80%league 49%
Real Betis1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 May 25A · Atletico Madrid1–41
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Aug 25H · Real Sociedad1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis33 games · scored 49 · conceded 41
4
10
0-15
10
6
16-30
7
8
31-45
8
6
46-60
9
5
61-75
11
6
76-90
Oviedo32 games · scored 26 · conceded 51
2
6
0-15
2
8
16-30
8
7
31-45
5
7
46-60
4
10
61-75
5
13
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
