Real Betis
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were slight favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Madrid. Real Betis had 6.2 days of rest, Real Madrid 5.2 and had to travel 390 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel390 kmRest days6.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Real Betis21%
Draw21%
Real Madrid59%
Real Betis25%
Draw25%
Real Madrid50%
Real Betis20%
Draw21%
Real Madrid59%
Real Betis15%
Draw18%
Real Madrid67%
Real Betis21%
Draw21%
Real Madrid58%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Sevilla)
Heat stress
34°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 36%
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 142
Team strength
Real Betis
Real Madrid
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
72
Current StrengthIn forecast
89
79
AttackIn forecast
89
59
DefenceIn forecast
85
69
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real BetisReal Madrid
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
3.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
2.82
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
17.67
ShotsContext
20.00
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
9.00
30%
On target shareContext
45%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
14.00
57%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
14.67
Shots allowedContext
10.67
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.33
4.33
BlocksContext
3.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.67
63%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
531
PassesContext
577
461
Accurate passesContext
529
87%
Pass accuracyContext
92%
7.00
Team ratingContext
7.32
9.00
FoulsContext
7.67
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.20
ShotsContext
16.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
35%
On target shareContext
40%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
54%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.78
12.90
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.20
BlocksContext
3.40
4.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
75%
Save rateContext
84%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
489
PassesContext
573
424
Accurate passesContext
517
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.15
10.70
FoulsContext
9.20
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Betis
WWL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,159 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 69 · 6 pts vs 3.8 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Betis |
Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 5.2La Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 390 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,159 km | 995 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Betis
Confirmed XI
1Álvaro Vallés(G)
11Fran García
4Natan
3Diego Llorente
2Héctor Bellerín
21Marc Roca
6F. Bernal
8Pablo Fornals
22Isco
7Antony
9C. Hernández
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella
4D. Huijsen
16I. Konaté
24D. Dumfries
6E. Camavinga
8F. Valverde
7Vinícius
5J. Bellingham
15A. Güler
10K. Mbappé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Betis
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Madrid
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Betis+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Madrid-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Betis · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Real Madrid · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Real Betis | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
1 Real Betis wins5 draws4 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.30
Over 2.530%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 50%
- 24 Apr 2026Real Betis1–1Real Madrid
- 4 Jan 2026Real Madrid5–1Real Betis
- 1 Mar 2025Real Betis2–1Real Madrid
- 1 Sep 2024Real Madrid2–0Real Betis
- 25 May 2024Real Madrid0–0Real Betis
- 9 Dec 2023Real Betis1–1Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Betis | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 3.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Real Betis | Real Madrid | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.00 | 3.31 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Betis | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 13.00 | 10.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.66 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Real Betis | Real Madrid | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 10.67 | 10.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 4.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 142 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.04league 4.26
Red cards0.26league 0.19
Cards 5+58%league 45%
Fouls25.0league 25.5
Penalties0.32league 0.32
Home wins42%league 52%
Real Betis12 with this referee
Record5-3-4
Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.1
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds4
- L4 Jan 26A · Real Madrid1–51
- D18 Oct 25A · Villarreal2–21
- W21 Apr 25A · Girona3–12
- W1 Mar 25H · Real Madrid2–13
- L18 Jan 25H · Alaves1–35
Real Madrid14 with this referee
Record7-3-4
Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.4
Pens for · against3 · 2
- L10 May 26A · Barcelona0–24
- W4 Jan 26H · Real Betis5–11
- L11 May 25A · Barcelona3–43
- L1 Mar 25A · Real Betis1–24
- W1 Dec 24H · Getafe2–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Betis3 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Real Madrid3 games · scored 10 · conceded 2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Real Betis10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
