Real Madrid vs Levante – 17 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 17 · 13:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real Madrid 2nd · 45 pts · 19 played WLWWW

2–0Full time

Levante 19th · 14 pts · 18 played LLDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid were clear favourites.

Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 42). Real Madrid usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Real Madrid had 12.9 days of rest, Levante 5.9 and had to travel 302 km.

Away travel302 kmRest days12.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Real Madrid77%

Draw16%

Levante7%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.66

Real Madrid77%

Draw15%

Levante8%

Expected goals 2.55 – 0.70

Real Madrid76%

Draw16%

Levante8%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.65

Real Madrid71%

Draw19%

Levante11%

Expected goals 2.22 – 0.74

Real Madrid78%

Draw15%

Levante8%

Expected goals 2.61 – 0.72

Over 2.5 61% Both score 45% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa

Cards per match 2.6
Penalties per match 0.11
Matches 9

Team strength

Real Madrid

Levante

88 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

89 AttackIn forecast 55

85 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Madrid

Levante

2.16 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

0.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.05

89% Scored inContext 72%

42% Clean sheetsContext 17%

18.68 ShotsContext 9.44

6.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

37% On target shareContext 35%

11.58 Shots in the boxContext 6.41

62% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.94 OffsidesContext 2.43

9.79 Shots allowedContext 16.78

3.59 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

3.24 BlocksContext 4.72

2.47 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

69% Save rateContext 71%

59% PossessionIn forecast 42%

569 PassesContext 345

510 Accurate passesContext 270

90% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.17 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.42 FoulsContext 12.50

12.42 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

1.58 Yellow cardsContext 2.28

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 19 and 18 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.40 ShotsContext 9.00

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

33% On target shareContext 38%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

63% Box shareContext 68%

12% ConversionContext 9%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.43

11.20 Shots allowedContext 16.70

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

2.60 BlocksContext 4.80

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

76% Save rateContext 70%

56% PossessionIn forecast 44%

529 PassesContext 360

470 Accurate passesContext 282

89% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.08 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.30 FoulsContext 11.20

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid

Rest12.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Levante

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel302 km1,079 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Madrid	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.9La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,079 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.3	6.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1T. Courtois(G)

18Álvaro Fernández 24D. Huijsen 17Raúl Asencio 8F. Valverde

5J. Bellingham 14A. Tchouaméni 6E. Camavinga

7Vinícius 10K. Mbappé 16Gonzalo García

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Levante Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13M. Ryan(G)

23Manu Sánchez 3A. Matturro 4Adrián de la Fuente 22J. Toljan

10Pablo Martínez 12Unai Vencedor

9Iván Romero 24Carlos Álvarez 26Kareem Tunde

21E. Eyong

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Madrid Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Levante Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Madrid+0.7 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Levante-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 2.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 8-0-1
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 0.67

Levante · Away 1.10points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-5
Scored: 1.30
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 17 this season

Opponent	Real Madrid	Levante
Real Betis	W 5–1 H	D 2–2 H
Sevilla	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 A
Alaves	W 2–1 A	L 1–2 A
Celta Vigo	L 0–2 H	L 1–2 H
Athletic Club	W 3–0 A	L 0–2 H
Girona	D 1–1 A	W 4–0 A
Elche	D 2–2 A	L 0–2 A
Rayo Vallecano	D 0–0 A	L 0–3 H
Valencia	W 4–0 H	L 0–1 A
Barcelona	W 2–1 H	L 2–3 H
Getafe	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 A
Atletico Madrid	L 2–5 A	L 1–3 A
Espanyol	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 H
Mallorca	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Oviedo	W 3–0 A	W 2–0 A
Osasuna	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 A
Points	39 of 51 · 2.29 per game	14 of 51 · 0.82 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Real Madrid wins1 draws1 Levante wins

Goals per game3.20 – 1.20 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 0%

23 Sep 2025Levante1–4Real Madrid
12 May 2022Real Madrid6–0Levante
22 Aug 2021Levante3–3Real Madrid
30 Jan 2021Real Madrid1–2Levante
4 Oct 2020Levante0–2Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Madrid	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	2.16	1.17
Conceded per game	0.89	1.67
Match goals	3.05	2.83	3.16
Over 1.5	84%	94%
Over 2.5	63%	50%	61%
Over 3.5	32%	28%
Both teams scored	53%	56%	45%
Clean sheets	42%	17%
Failed to score	11%	28%
Games	19	18

	Real Madrid	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	0.80
Conceded per game	0.80	1.60
Match goals	2.90	2.40	3.16
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	61%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	45%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Madrid	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.50
Corners conceded	3.82	6.56
Match total	9.82	10.06	9.51
Over 8.5	71% 12/17	50% 8/16
Over 9.5	53% 9/17	38% 6/16
Over 10.5	35% 6/17	31% 5/16
Cards
Cards	1.74	2.33
Opponent cards	2.47	2.17
Match total	4.21	4.50	4.41
Over 3.5	47% 9/19	72% 13/18
Over 4.5	42% 8/19	50% 9/18

	Real Madrid	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	4.33
Corners conceded	3.70	6.22
Match total	9.60	10.55	9.51
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	2.70	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.60	4.41
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 9 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.56league 4.15

Red cards0.00league 0.27

Cards 5+22%league 46%

Fouls26.0league 24.6

Penalties0.11league 0.35

Home wins89%league 45%

Real Madrid

No previous matches with this referee.

Levante2 with this referee

Record0-0-2 Cards · opp.0.5 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L19 Oct 25H · Rayo Vallecano0–30
L16 Aug 25A · Alaves1–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.