Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 58). Absences weigh more on Real Madrid. Real Madrid had ? days of rest, Osasuna ? and had to travel 317 km.
Away travel317 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Real Madrid67%
Draw20%
Osasuna12%
Real Madrid69%
Draw19%
Osasuna12%
Real Madrid68%
Draw20%
Osasuna12%
Real Madrid60%
Draw23%
Osasuna17%
Real Madrid68%
Draw20%
Osasuna13%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 3
Team strength
Real Madrid
Osasuna
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
89
AttackIn forecast
50
85
DefenceIn forecast
50
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Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridOsasuna
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
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—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
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—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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—
Red cardsContext
—
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
17.10
ShotsContext
12.30
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
36%
On target shareContext
34%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.10
61%
Box shareContext
72%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.20
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.13
BlocksContext
3.75
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
69%
Save rateContext
82%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
532
PassesContext
372
474
Accurate passesContext
304
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.26
Team ratingContext
7.06
9.30
FoulsContext
13.30
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Osasuna
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel317 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 317 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
12T. Alexander-Arnold
3Éder Militão
24D. Huijsen
18Álvaro Fernández
8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni
15A. Güler
21Brahim Díaz
10K. Mbappé
7Vinícius
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
3Juan Cruz
24Catena
22F. Boyomo
23Abel Bretones
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
19V. Rosier
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- Osasuna+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
No home games yet this season.
Osasuna · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 Real Madrid wins4 draws0 Osasuna wins
Goals per game2.10 – 0.50
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets60% · 20%
- 15 Feb 2025Osasuna1–1Real Madrid
- 9 Nov 2024Real Madrid4–0Osasuna
- 16 Mar 2024Osasuna2–4Real Madrid
- 7 Oct 2023Real Madrid4–0Osasuna
- 18 Feb 2023Osasuna0–2Real Madrid
- 2 Oct 2022Real Madrid1–1Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 48% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Real Madrid | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 48% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Real Madrid | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.44 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 10.10 | 9.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.70 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.33league 3.11
Red cards0.33league 0.44
Cards 5+67%league 33%
Fouls28.0league 23.0
Penalties0.67league 0.33
Home wins100%league 44%
Real MadridNo previous matches with this referee.
Osasuna1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Apr 25H · Sevilla1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real MadridOsasunaReal Madrid10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
