Real Madrid
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Real Madrid were clear favourites.
Real Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Real Madrid had 4 days of rest, Oviedo 4.1 and had to travel 372 km.
Away travel372 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real Madrid74%
Draw17%
Oviedo9%
Real Madrid81%
Draw13%
Oviedo6%
Real Madrid74%
Draw17%
Oviedo9%
Real Madrid67%
Draw20%
Oviedo13%
Real Madrid74%
Draw17%
Oviedo9%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainRicardo De Burgos Bengoetxea
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 51
Team strength
Real Madrid
Oviedo
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
89
AttackIn forecast
23
85
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real MadridOviedo
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.74
0.94
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.54
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
89%
Scored inContext
49%
34%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
17.29
ShotsContext
9.57
6.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.26
38%
On target shareContext
34%
10.97
Shots in the boxContext
6.06
64%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.48
10.40
Shots allowedContext
14.31
3.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.62
3.28
BlocksContext
3.91
2.47
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.24
71%
Save rateContext
74%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
575
PassesContext
383
516
Accurate passesContext
313
90%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.10
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.31
FoulsContext
12.40
13.34
Fouls sufferedContext
11.74
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.94
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.70
ShotsContext
9.90
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
43%
On target shareContext
39%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.13
70%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.38
15.30
Shots allowedContext
13.70
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
4.20
BlocksContext
4.56
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
72%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
510
PassesContext
412
453
Accurate passesContext
339
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.00
FoulsContext
11.90
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Madrid
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,003 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Oviedo
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel372 km1,330 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Madrid |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4La Liga 2025-2026, 10 May | 4.1La Liga 2025-2026, 10 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 372 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,003 km | 1,330 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.9 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Madrid
Confirmed XI
1T. Courtois(G)
18Álvaro Fernández
4D. Alaba
17Raúl Asencio
12T. Alexander-Arnold
21Brahim Díaz
14A. Tchouaméni
6E. Camavinga
30Franco Mastantuono
7Vinícius
16Gonzalo García
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
4David Costas
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
11S. Colombatto
23N. Fonseca
15T. Fernandez
5Alberto Reina
7I. Chaira
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Madrid
Scores -0.11 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Madrid-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Oviedo+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Madrid · Home
2.53points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 14-1-2
- Scored
- 2.29
- Conceded
- 0.82
Oviedo · Away
0.59points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-11
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.18
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Madrid | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AW 5–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Alaves | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Mallorca | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | W 3–2 HL 2–5 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Elche | W 4–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 0–2 H | W 3–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Getafe | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 4–1 HW 2–1 A | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Valencia | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 HW 4–1 A | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 74 of 102 · 2.18 per game | 29 of 102 · 0.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Real Madrid wins0 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 24 Aug 2025Oviedo0–3Real Madrid
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Madrid | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.94 | 1.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.29 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 66% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 34% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 34% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 51% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Real Madrid | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Madrid | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.38 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 10.26 | 9.37 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 24/32 | 61% 20/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 20/32 | 52% 17/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 47% 15/32 | 33% 11/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.54 | 1.51 | |
| Match total | 4.51 | 3.74 | 4.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 51% 18/35 | 49% 17/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 15/35 | 34% 12/35 | |
| Real Madrid | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.90 | 6.25 | |
| Match total | 12.20 | 9.25 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.00 | 4.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea Spain · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.69league 4.30
Red cards0.24league 0.27
Cards 5+31%league 47%
Fouls22.0league 24.5
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins49%league 48%
Real Madrid4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D30 Nov 25A · Girona1–10
- W24 Aug 25A · Oviedo3–01
- W1 Feb 24A · Getafe2–02
- D21 Oct 23A · Sevilla1–12
Oviedo3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- D23 Apr 26H · Villarreal1–11
- W30 Sep 25A · Valencia2–14
- L24 Aug 25H · Real Madrid0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Madrid35 games · scored 70 · conceded 33
5
2
0-15
10
4
16-30
14
7
31-45
14
6
46-60
10
6
61-75
17
8
76-90
Oviedo34 games · scored 26 · conceded 54
2
6
0-15
2
9
16-30
8
8
31-45
5
8
46-60
4
10
61-75
5
13
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
