Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were clear favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 52). Barcelona usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Real Sociedad had 9 days of rest, Barcelona 15 and had to travel 401 km.
Away travel401 kmRest days9 · 15Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real Sociedad15%
Draw22%
Barcelona63%
Real Sociedad16%
Draw22%
Barcelona62%
Real Sociedad15%
Draw22%
Barcelona63%
Real Sociedad11%
Draw19%
Barcelona70%
Real Sociedad16%
Draw22%
Barcelona62%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 43
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Barcelona
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
91
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
62
AttackIn forecast
97
48
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadBarcelona
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.79
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.05
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
84%
Scored inContext
100%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
13.53
ShotsContext
19.42
4.84
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.26
36%
On target shareContext
37%
8.11
Shots in the boxContext
11.89
63%
Box shareContext
62%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.80
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.53
Shots allowedContext
9.47
3.42
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.79
3.25
BlocksContext
2.88
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.68
63%
Save rateContext
71%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
441
PassesContext
634
365
Accurate passesContext
567
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.09
15.11
FoulsContext
10.21
12.11
Fouls sufferedContext
11.58
2.11
Yellow cardsContext
1.21
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
2.27
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
90%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
17.50
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
41%
On target shareContext
36%
7.10
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
61%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.11
10.30
Shots allowedContext
10.20
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
2.33
BlocksContext
2.78
1.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
61%
Save rateContext
67%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
67%
434
PassesContext
655
353
Accurate passesContext
583
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.12
15.00
FoulsContext
9.80
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km729 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Barcelona
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel401 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 9La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Jan | 15La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 401 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 729 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
5Zubeldia
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
8Beñat Turrientes
14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal
23Brais Méndez
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
3Alejandro Balde
24Eric García
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
8Pedri
21F. de Jong
16Fermín López
20Dani Olmo
7Ferran Torres
10Lamine Yamal
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Barcelona-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.22points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-4
- Scored
- 1.44
- Conceded
- 1.56
Barcelona · Away
2.20points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-1-2
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Alaves | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Villarreal | L 2–3 H | W 2–0 A |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 H | W 4–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 A | W 4–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 H | W 3–0 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | W 5–3 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 6–0 H |
| Points | 21 of 54 · 1.17 per game | 46 of 54 · 2.56 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
2 Real Sociedad wins0 draws8 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.80 – 2.50
Over 2.560%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets10% · 40%
- 28 Sep 2025Barcelona2–1Real Sociedad
- 2 Mar 2025Barcelona4–0Real Sociedad
- 10 Nov 2024Real Sociedad1–0Barcelona
- 13 May 2024Barcelona2–0Real Sociedad
- 4 Nov 2023Real Sociedad0–1Barcelona
- 20 May 2023Barcelona1–2Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 2.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.05 | |
| Match goals | 2.68 | 3.84 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 79% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 53% | |
| Both teams scored | 79% | 63% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 0% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Real Sociedad | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.21 | 6.72 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.95 | 4.72 | |
| Match total | 10.16 | 11.44 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 89% 16/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 11/19 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 10/19 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.11 | 1.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.63 | 2.68 | |
| Match total | 4.74 | 4.00 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 6/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Real Sociedad | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 11.13 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.70 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 43 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.35league 4.18
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+49%league 47%
Fouls24.7league 24.6
Penalties0.42league 0.36
Home wins37%league 47%
Real Sociedad3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L13 Sep 25H · Real Madrid1–22
- D3 Feb 24A · Girona0–03
- W30 Sep 23H · Athletic Club3–02
Barcelona4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Oct 25H · Girona2–11
- W19 May 24H · Rayo Vallecano3–04
- W21 Jan 24A · Real Betis4–22
- L28 Oct 23H · Real Madrid1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad19 games · scored 24 · conceded 27
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
8
31-45
7
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
7
76-90
Barcelona19 games · scored 53 · conceded 20
11
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
10
7
31-45
8
46-60
8
1
61-75
12
4
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 27 · conceded 11
6
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
