Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth – 17 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 17 · 20:00 Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real Sociedad

1–2Full time

Bournemouth

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth were slight favourites.

Bournemouth were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bournemouth. Real Sociedad had 4 days of rest, Bournemouth 5.2 and had to travel 824 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel824 kmRest days4 · 5.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

Real Sociedad25%

Draw23%

Bournemouth53%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.86

Real Sociedad28%

Draw25%

Bournemouth47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.56

Real Sociedad25%

Draw23%

Bournemouth52%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.82

Real Sociedad19%

Draw20%

Bournemouth61%

Expected goals 1.08 – 2.09

Real Sociedad25%

Draw23%

Bournemouth53%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.87

Over 2.5 59% Both score 59% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)

21°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 62%

RefereePawel Raczkowski

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 39

Team strength

Real Sociedad

Bournemouth

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

58 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

62 AttackIn forecast 83

48 DefenceIn forecast 82

59 Form indexContext 45

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Sociedad

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real Sociedad

Bournemouth

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.67

1.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.31

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

70% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.80 ShotsContext 14.10

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

42% On target shareContext 36%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

62% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.86 OffsidesContext 1.78

16.20 Shots allowedContext 11.40

6.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

3.60 BlocksContext 3.44

4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

71% Save rateContext 69%

51% PossessionIn forecast 49%

479 PassesContext 417

409 Accurate passesContext 337

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.96

13.40 FoulsContext 12.10

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Sociedad LWDWL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,143 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 59 · 7 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

L13 SepH · Atletico Madrid0–31.3 xPts
W7 SepA · Elche3–21.4 xPts
D3 SepH · Celta Vigo0–01.8 xPts
W29 AugH · Espanyol2–11.6 xPts
L26 AugA · Real Madrid1–40.5 xPts

Bournemouth LDDD

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel824 km946 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 45 · 3 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

D12 SepH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
D5 SepA · Newcastle2–21.3 xPts
D29 AugH · Everton1–11.9 xPts
L23 AugA · Manchester City1–20.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Sociedad	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4La Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep	5.2Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	824 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,143 km	946 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 6	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Sociedad Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13Unai Marrero(G)

17Sergio Gómez 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 34Luken Beitia

7Barrenetxea 21Y. Herrera 8Beñat Turrientes 22Héctor Fort

9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

16M. Tavernier 12T. Adams 8A. Scott 37Rayan

19J. Kluivert 9Evanilson

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Sociedad Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Real Sociedad-0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Bournemouth+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Real Sociedad · Home No home games yet this season.

Bournemouth · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Real Sociedad	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.07
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	59%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Real Sociedad	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.60
Conceded per game	1.90	1.20
Match goals	3.20	2.80	3.07
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	59%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	80%	59%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Sociedad	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.70
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.10
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Real Sociedad	Bournemouth	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	5.20
Corners conceded	3.70	4.70
Match total	9.80	9.90	10.70
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.80
Opponent cards	2.50	1.80
Match total	5.50	4.60	3.10
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Pawel Raczkowski 39 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.82league 3.27

Red cards0.28league 0.00

Cards 5+64%league 45%

Fouls24.8league 25.0

Penalties0.33league 0.09

Home wins54%league 45%

Real Sociedad

No previous matches with this referee.

Bournemouth

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.