Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Real Sociedad
10th · 24 pts · 20 played
LDDWW
3–1Full time
Celta Vigo
7th · 32 pts · 20 played
WDWWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 55). Absences weigh more on Real Sociedad. Real Sociedad had 6.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 2.9 and had to travel 564 km.
Away travel564 kmRest days6.9 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Real Sociedad36%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo36%
Real Sociedad37%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo35%
Real Sociedad37%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo35%
Real Sociedad29%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo43%
Real Sociedad37%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo37%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 34
Team strength
Real SociedadCelta Vigo
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
62
AttackIn forecast
36
48
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadCelta Vigo
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
85%
Scored inContext
85%
5%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
10.05
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.95
37%
On target shareContext
39%
7.95
Shots in the boxContext
6.35
63%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.88
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.15
Shots allowedContext
12.30
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.29
BlocksContext
3.37
2.76
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.53
66%
Save rateContext
80%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
430
PassesContext
476
354
Accurate passesContext
407
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.87
15.00
FoulsContext
11.25
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.85
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
90%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.90
ShotsContext
8.40
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
43%
On target shareContext
50%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
60%
Box shareContext
66%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.10
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
2.56
BlocksContext
3.90
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
68%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
425
PassesContext
421
347
Accurate passesContext
352
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.50
FoulsContext
10.90
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel564 km1,176 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Jan | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 22 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 564 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
7Barrenetxea
8Beñat Turrientes
4Jon Gorrotxategi
11Gonçalo Guedes
10Mikel Oyarzabal
24L. Sučić
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
12Manu Fernández
23Hugo Álvarez
22Hugo Sotelo
6I. Moriba
5Sergio Carreira
15Bryan Zaragoza
18Pablo Durán
39Jones El-Abdellaoui
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.40points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-4
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Celta Vigo · Away
2.00points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.78
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 2–4 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Girona | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Alaves | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Villarreal | L 2–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Elche | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Athletic Club | W 3–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 23 of 57 · 1.21 per game | 31 of 57 · 1.63 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Real Sociedad wins3 draws2 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game1.10 – 0.80
Over 2.520%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 20%
- 19 Oct 2025Celta Vigo1–1Real Sociedad
- 13 May 2025Real Sociedad0–1Celta Vigo
- 21 Dec 2024Celta Vigo2–0Real Sociedad
- 20 Jan 2024Celta Vigo0–1Real Sociedad
- 19 Aug 2023Real Sociedad1–1Celta Vigo
- 18 Feb 2023Real Sociedad1–1Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.40 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 30% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 5% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 15% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.15 | 4.85 | |
| Match total | 10.35 | 8.60 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 12/20 | 30% 6/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 11/20 | 25% 5/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.65 | 2.75 | |
| Match total | 4.85 | 4.65 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 7/20 | 50% 10/20 | |
| Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 7.89 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.70 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.53league 4.18
Red cards0.18league 0.28
Cards 5+26%league 47%
Fouls24.7league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.36
Home wins44%league 48%
Real Sociedad2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L6 Dec 25A · Alaves0–12
- L4 Nov 23H · Barcelona0–13
Celta Vigo5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 3
- L9 Nov 25H · Barcelona2–41
- W23 Apr 25H · Villarreal3–02
- W19 May 24A · Granada CF2–11
- W4 Feb 24A · Osasuna3–00
- L2 Oct 23A · Las Palmas1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad20 games · scored 26 · conceded 28
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
7
8
31-45
7
6
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Celta Vigo19 games · scored 26 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
6
61-75
9
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
0-15
16-30
5
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
