Real Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Valencia. Real Sociedad had 3 days of rest, Valencia 3 and had to travel 447 km.
Away travel447 kmRest days3 · 3Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real Sociedad40%
Draw27%
Valencia33%
Real Sociedad45%
Draw27%
Valencia28%
Real Sociedad40%
Draw27%
Valencia33%
Real Sociedad33%
Draw27%
Valencia40%
Real Sociedad40%
Draw26%
Valencia34%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Donostia-San Sebastián)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 18
Team strength
Real Sociedad
Valencia
55
L90 StrengthIn forecast
53
58
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
62
AttackIn forecast
39
48
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Real SociedadValencia
1.53
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.08
1.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.42
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
86%
Scored inContext
75%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.22
ShotsContext
11.25
4.69
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.21
37%
On target shareContext
27%
7.47
Shots in the boxContext
7.38
63%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.89
OffsidesContext
2.19
13.53
Shots allowedContext
11.58
4.31
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.26
3.67
BlocksContext
2.94
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
67%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
442
PassesContext
405
368
Accurate passesContext
332
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.83
FoulsContext
11.83
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
2.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.37
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
12.50
4.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
29%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
59%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
3.13
OffsidesContext
2.88
16.60
Shots allowedContext
11.10
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.90
BlocksContext
2.78
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
70%
Save rateContext
76%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
476
PassesContext
394
402
Accurate passesContext
325
85%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.00
FoulsContext
11.20
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Real Sociedad
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,321 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Valencia
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel447 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Real Sociedad |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 14 May | 3La Liga 2025-2026, 14 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 447 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,321 km | 944 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz
5Zubeldia
31Jon Martín
6Elustondo
18Carlos Soler
8Beñat Turrientes
21A. Zakharyan
23Brais Méndez
15Pablo Marín
9O. Óskarsson
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
21Jesús Vázquez
24E. Cömert
5César Tárrega
4Unai Núñez
16Diego López
2G. Rodríguez
23F. Ugrinic
11Luis Rioja
9Hugo Duro
8Javi Guerra
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Real Sociedad
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Real Sociedad-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Valencia+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Real Sociedad · Home
1.61points per game · 18 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-5-5
- Scored
- 1.89
- Conceded
- 1.50
Valencia · Away
0.89points per game · 18 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-10
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.61
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Real Sociedad | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Girona | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 3–3 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Getafe | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Alaves | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Levante | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–3 AL 2–3 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Osasuna | W 3–1 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 2–3 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Mallorca | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Oviedo | D 3–3 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–4 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Elche | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 HL 1–4 A |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–6 A |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 44 of 105 · 1.26 per game | 42 of 105 · 1.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Real Sociedad wins5 draws2 Valencia wins
Goals per game0.90 – 0.60
Over 2.520%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets50% · 40%
- 16 Aug 2025Valencia1–1Real Sociedad
- 19 Jan 2025Valencia1–0Real Sociedad
- 28 Sep 2024Real Sociedad3–0Valencia
- 16 May 2024Real Sociedad1–0Valencia
- 27 Sep 2023Valencia0–1Real Sociedad
- 25 Feb 2023Valencia1–0Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Real Sociedad | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.53 | 1.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.56 | 1.42 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 39% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 53% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 25% | |
| Games | 36 | 36 |
| Real Sociedad | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.40 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Real Sociedad | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.53 | 4.97 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.03 | |
| Match total | 10.03 | 10.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 24/36 | 63% 20/32 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 18/36 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 15/36 | 50% 16/32 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 1.81 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.47 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 4.14 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 22/36 | 64% 23/36 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 14/36 | 47% 17/36 | |
| Real Sociedad | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 9.67 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 3.70 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 4.29
Red cards0.33league 0.27
Cards 5+44%league 47%
Fouls28.2league 24.5
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins22%league 48%
Real Sociedad1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Sep 25H · Mallorca1–02
Valencia2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L5 Apr 26H · Celta Vigo2–31
- D20 Oct 25A · Alaves0–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Real Sociedad36 games · scored 55 · conceded 56
3
8
0-15
10
7
16-30
10
11
31-45
10
11
46-60
8
5
61-75
14
14
76-90
Valencia36 games · scored 39 · conceded 51
4
2
0-15
3
8
16-30
3
7
31-45
8
11
46-60
9
10
61-75
12
13
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
2
4
0-15
6
4
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
