Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rennes were clear favourites.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rennes. Rennes had 7.1 days of rest, Angers 6.3 and had to travel 110 km.
Away travel110 kmRest days7.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rennes67%
Draw20%
Angers12%
Rennes63%
Draw22%
Angers15%
Rennes67%
Draw21%
Angers13%
Rennes60%
Draw23%
Angers17%
Rennes67%
Draw21%
Angers13%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 56
Team strength
Rennes
Angers
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
63
AttackIn forecast
22
39
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesAngers
1.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
79%
Scored inContext
61%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
13.14
ShotsContext
9.00
4.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.48
36%
On target shareContext
35%
8.19
Shots in the boxContext
5.68
61%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.41
OffsidesContext
1.91
12.39
Shots allowedContext
13.68
3.64
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.89
BlocksContext
2.93
2.72
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
72%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
474
PassesContext
402
404
Accurate passesContext
334
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.11
FoulsContext
10.89
11.54
Fouls sufferedContext
10.93
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.46
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
70%
Scored inContext
40%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.10
ShotsContext
9.60
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
34%
On target shareContext
29%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
61%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
4%
2.60
OffsidesContext
1.63
10.30
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.00
BlocksContext
2.60
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
72%
Save rateContext
80%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
510
PassesContext
415
434
Accurate passesContext
350
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.30
FoulsContext
10.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km421 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel110 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 6.3Ligue 1 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 110 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 421 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
48A. Aït Boudlal
36A. Seidu
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
10L. Blas
9E. Lepaul
7B. Embolo
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
20Marius Louer
27L. Rao-Lisoa
93H. Belkebla
8B. van den Boomen
6L. Mouton
7M. Sbaï
36Lanroy Machine
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Angers-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
1.79points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-3
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.00
Angers · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 4–3 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Metz | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Lille | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Nice | W 4–0 AL 1–2 H | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Toulouse | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Auxerre | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H | L 1–5 AL 1–2 H |
| Monaco | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Lorient | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A | L 0–2 AW 2–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Paris FC | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 4–1 H | L 0–5 A |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 46 of 81 · 1.70 per game | 32 of 81 · 1.19 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Rennes wins1 draws1 Angers wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.86
Over 2.543%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 14%
- 31 Aug 2025Angers1–1Rennes
- 30 Mar 2025Angers0–3Rennes
- 15 Dec 2024Rennes2–0Angers
- 30 Apr 2023Rennes4–2Angers
- 23 Oct 2022Angers1–2Rennes
- 6 Mar 2022Rennes2–0Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.68 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.43 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 2.18 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 25% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 54% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 32% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 39% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Rennes | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 1.60 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 10% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 10% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 60% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.39 | 3.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.36 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.37 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 17/28 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 14/28 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 10/28 | 19% 5/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.18 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 2.68 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 18/28 | 36% 10/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 13/28 | 7% 2/28 | |
| Rennes | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.60 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.50 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.80 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 56 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.68
Red cards0.38league 0.27
Cards 5+50%league 36%
Fouls26.8league 23.8
Penalties0.32league 0.36
Home wins43%league 48%
Rennes9 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 2
- D20 Sep 25A · Nantes2–21
- L8 Mar 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–42
- W8 Feb 25A · Saint Etienne2–05
- L24 Nov 24A · Lille0–12
- L1 Sep 24A · Reims1–21
Angers4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L22 Feb 26H · Lille0–13
- D22 Sep 24H · Nantes1–11
- W8 Apr 23H · Lille1–02
- L15 Jan 23H · Clermont Foot1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes28 games · scored 47 · conceded 40
4
6
0-15
13
1
16-30
5
7
31-45
9
8
46-60
6
8
61-75
10
10
76-90
Angers28 games · scored 24 · conceded 37
1
3
0-15
5
6
16-30
2
8
31-45
5
6
46-60
2
10
61-75
9
4
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
5
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 4 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
