Rennes vs Le Mans – 30 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 16:15 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 12th · 1 pts · 1 played D

3–2Full time

Le Mans 13th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rennes were clear favourites.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rennes. Rennes had 6.9 days of rest, Le Mans 7.9 and had to travel 140 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel140 kmRest days6.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rennes66%

Draw19%

Le Mans16%

Expected goals 2.30 – 1.03

Rennes60%

Draw22%

Le Mans18%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.94

Rennes65%

Draw19%

Le Mans16%

Expected goals 2.23 – 1.01

Rennes58%

Draw21%

Le Mans21%

Expected goals 2.05 – 1.15

Rennes66%

Draw19%

Le Mans16%

Expected goals 2.29 – 1.03

Over 2.5 65% Both score 58% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rennes)

21°CClear

Precipitation 0.3 mm
Wind 23 km/h
Humidity 64%

Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 57

Team strength

Rennes

Le Mans

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 26

63 AttackIn forecast 27

39 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Le Mans

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Le Mans

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def —

1.74 xGVia Att/Def —

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.16 Goals minus xGContext —

90% Scored inContext —

20% Clean sheetsContext —

16.20 ShotsContext —

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

36% On target shareContext —

10.30 Shots in the boxContext —

62% Box shareContext —

12% ConversionContext —

3.00 OffsidesContext —

13.30 Shots allowedContext —

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def —

4.30 BlocksContext —

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

67% Save rateContext —

55% PossessionIn forecast —

466 PassesContext —

394 Accurate passesContext —

85% Pass accuracyContext —

6.92 Team ratingContext —

11.80 FoulsContext —

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext —

1.70 Yellow cardsContext —

0.00 Red cardsContext —

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 0 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes D

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 52 · 1 pts vs 0.8 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

D23 AugH · Paris Saint Germain2–20.8 xPts

Le Mans D

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel140 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 42 · 1 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected

D22 AugH · Stade Brestois 292–21.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Le Mans
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 23 Aug	7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	140 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

16N. Lemaître(G)

26Q. Merlin 48A. Aït Boudlal 4C. Cresswell 95P. Frankowski

28A. Thomasson 21V. Rongier 17S. Szymański

90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 11Mousa Al Ta'mari

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Le Mans Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

98N. Kocik(G)

5H. Voyer 21T. Eyoum 15N. Boissé

8A. Lauray

22L. Calodat 11A. Bourabaa 29Lucas Bretelle 18L. Buadés

14L. Mafouta 25D. Guèye

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Absences are shown before kick-off

Le Mans Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes+1.0 pp
Draw-0.6 pp
Le Mans-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Le Mans · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Le Mans	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	4.00	4.00	3.32
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	65%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Rennes	Le Mans	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.00
Conceded per game	1.70	2.00
Match goals	3.60	4.00	3.32
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	90%	100%	65%
Over 3.5	40%	100%
Both teams scored	80%	100%	58%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Le Mans	League
Corners
Corners won	—	1.00
Corners conceded	—	10.00
Match total	—	11.00	10.00
Over 8.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	—	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.00	3.00
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Rennes	Le Mans	League
Corners
Corners won	7.67	1.00
Corners conceded	3.44	10.00
Match total	11.11	11.00	10.00
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	89% 8/9	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	3.70	2.00	3.00
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/1

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 57 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.63league 2.94

Red cards0.33league 0.13

Cards 5+37%league 19%

Fouls25.7league 22.6

Penalties0.35league 0.44

Home wins53%league 25%

Rennes5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W8 Mar 26A · Nice4–01
L16 Feb 25H · Lille0–23
L10 Nov 24H · Toulouse0–23
W18 Feb 24H · Clermont Foot3–11
W9 Apr 22A · Reims3–20

Le Mans

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.