Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 39). Absences weigh more on Rennes. Rennes had 8.2 days of rest, Lens 8 and had to travel 416 km.
Away travel416 kmRest days8.2 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Lens36%
Rennes38%
Draw27%
Lens35%
Rennes38%
Draw27%
Lens35%
Rennes30%
Draw27%
Lens44%
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Lens37%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 71
Team strength
Rennes
Lens
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
63
AttackIn forecast
63
39
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesLens
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
2.14
1.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.54
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
15.80
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
34%
On target shareContext
34%
8.75
Shots in the boxContext
11.20
64%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.67
15.80
Shots allowedContext
13.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
6.25
BlocksContext
4.40
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
471
PassesContext
417
407
Accurate passesContext
350
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.00
FoulsContext
12.20
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.60
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
90%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
14.50
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
35%
On target shareContext
35%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
63%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.67
13.50
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.13
BlocksContext
3.30
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
65%
Save rateContext
72%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
461
PassesContext
446
402
Accurate passesContext
378
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.05
12.50
FoulsContext
12.00
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km200 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel416 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Sep | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 416 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 200 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
24A. Rouault
97J. Jacquet
36A. Seidu
26Q. Merlin
8S. Fofana
6D. Cissé
45M. Camara
10L. Blas
9E. Lepaul
7B. Embolo
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
24J. Gradit
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes-1.6 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lens+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Lens · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Rennes wins4 draws4 Lens wins
Goals per game0.63 – 1.13
Over 2.513%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets0% · 38%
- 15 Mar 2025Lens1–0Rennes
- 21 Sep 2024Rennes1–1Lens
- 12 May 2024Rennes1–1Lens
- 20 Aug 2023Lens1–1Rennes
- 1 Apr 2023Rennes0–1Lens
- 27 Aug 2022Lens2–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Rennes | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 14.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.40 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.40 | 4.20 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 5/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Rennes | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 10.89 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.60 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 71 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.75
Red cards0.24league 0.34
Cards 5+37%league 40%
Fouls24.7league 24.7
Penalties0.35league 0.53
Home wins39%league 60%
Rennes9 with this referee
Record5-3-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D19 Oct 24A · Stade Brestois 291–12
- D25 Feb 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–13
- W13 Jan 24H · Nice2–01
- W19 Feb 23H · Clermont Foot2–00
- W30 Oct 22H · Montpellier3–01
Lens7 with this referee
Record3-4-0
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D10 May 25A · Toulouse1–15
- W31 Jan 25A · Montpellier2–03
- D15 Sep 24H · Lyon0–00
- D4 Nov 23A · Lorient0–03
- W2 May 23A · Toulouse1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes5 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Lens5 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
