Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 38). Marseille usually keep the ball (64% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Rennes had ? days of rest, Marseille ? and had to travel 765 km.
Away travel765 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Rennes33%
Draw26%
Marseille41%
Rennes33%
Draw27%
Marseille39%
Rennes33%
Draw26%
Marseille41%
Rennes26%
Draw26%
Marseille48%
Rennes33%
Draw27%
Marseille39%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 82
Team strength
Rennes
Marseille
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
63
AttackIn forecast
48
39
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesMarseille
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.65
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.80
ShotsContext
14.20
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
37%
On target shareContext
41%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
66%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.43
11.50
Shots allowedContext
8.80
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.89
BlocksContext
2.13
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
64%
Save rateContext
56%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
470
PassesContext
603
408
Accurate passesContext
540
87%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
7.01
Team ratingContext
7.08
12.70
FoulsContext
11.50
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel765 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 765 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
24A. Rouault
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
95P. Frankowski
8S. Fofana
21V. Rongier
32F. Rieder
39M. Meïté
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
19G. Kondogbia
5L. Balerdi
4C. Egan-Riley
8A. Gomes
23P. Højbjerg
17J. Rowe
62A. Murillo
25A. Rabiot
10M. Greenwood
9A. Gouiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Marseille+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
No home games yet this season.
Marseille · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Rennes wins1 draws5 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored38%
Clean sheets25% · 38%
- 17 May 2025Marseille4–2Rennes
- 11 Jan 2025Rennes1–2Marseille
- 17 Mar 2024Rennes2–0Marseille
- 3 Dec 2023Marseille2–0Rennes
- 5 Mar 2023Rennes0–1Marseille
- 18 Sep 2022Marseille1–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Rennes | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 57% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Rennes | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 8.50 | |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 82 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30
Red cards0.29
Cards 5+52%
Fouls22.7
Penalties0.37
Home wins43%
Rennes4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L17 May 25A · Marseille2–43
- W15 Sep 24H · Montpellier3–01
- W26 Feb 23A · Nantes1–02
- D13 Aug 22A · Monaco1–13
Marseille12 with this referee
Record8-3-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against6 · 2
Reds4
- W17 May 25H · Rennes4–23
- W6 Apr 25H · Toulouse3–22
- D24 Apr 24H · Nice2–22
- W25 Feb 24H · Montpellier4–12
- W30 Apr 23H · Auxerre2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
RennesMarseilleRennes10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
6
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
6
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 22 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
