Rennes vs Marseille – 11 Sep 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 4 Fri, Sep 11 · 19:45 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 5th · 7 pts · 3 played DWW

1–0Full time

Marseille 10th · 3 pts · 3 played WLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rennes were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Marseille. Rennes had 5.1 days of rest, Marseille 5 and had to travel 765 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel765 kmRest days5.1 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Rennes46%

Draw23%

Marseille31%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.49

Rennes47%

Draw25%

Marseille28%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Rennes46%

Draw23%

Marseille31%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.48

Rennes38%

Draw23%

Marseille39%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.66

Rennes46%

Draw23%

Marseille31%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.42

Over 2.5 65% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rennes)

19°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 69%

Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 93

Team strength

Rennes

Marseille

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

63 AttackIn forecast 48

39 DefenceIn forecast 46

71 Form indexContext 36

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Marseille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Marseille

2.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

2.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

+0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.46

100% Scored inContext 67%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

16.00 ShotsContext 13.67

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

33% On target shareContext 39%

11.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

66% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

16.00 Shots allowedContext 11.33

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

7.00 BlocksContext 2.50

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

62% Save rateContext 64%

50% PossessionIn forecast 64%

451 PassesContext 659

379 Accurate passesContext 604

84% Pass accuracyContext 92%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.67 FoulsContext 8.67

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.95 xGVia Att/Def 1.90

1.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.36

+0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

100% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.40 ShotsContext 16.30

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

36% On target shareContext 39%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

67% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.88 OffsidesContext 2.14

14.70 Shots allowedContext 11.20

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

5.10 BlocksContext 2.56

4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

67% Save rateContext 62%

54% PossessionIn forecast 58%

452 PassesContext 522

381 Accurate passesContext 458

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.85

12.00 FoulsContext 11.30

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes DWW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km220 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 71 · 7 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected

W6 SepA · Angers2–11.7 xPts
W30 AugH · Le Mans3–22.2 xPts
D23 AugH · Paris Saint Germain2–20.8 xPts

Marseille WLL

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel765 km343 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 36 · 3 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected

L6 SepH · Paris FC2–31.9 xPts
L30 AugA · Monaco0–21.2 xPts
W21 AugH · Strasbourg4–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Marseille
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 6 Sep	5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 6 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	765 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	220 km	343 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30B. Samba(G)

18M. Nagida 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 95P. Frankowski

28A. Thomasson 21V. Rongier 45M. Camara

90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 10L. Blas

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Marseille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. de Lange(G)

33Emerson 21N. Aguerd 4C. Egan-Riley 22T. Weah

23P. Højbjerg 8H. Abdelli

14Igor Paixão 7A. Gomes 77A. Harit

9A. Gouiri

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Absences are shown before kick-off

Marseille Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Marseille+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 2.50
Conceded: 2.00

Marseille · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Rennes wins1 draws6 Marseille wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 30%

17 May 2026Marseille3–1Rennes
15 Aug 2025Rennes1–0Marseille
17 May 2025Marseille4–2Rennes
11 Jan 2025Rennes1–2Marseille
17 Mar 2024Rennes2–0Marseille
3 Dec 2023Marseille2–0Rennes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	2.33	2.00
Conceded per game	1.67	1.67
Match goals	4.00	3.67	3.32
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	67%	65%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	100%	33%	65%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	3	3

	Rennes	Marseille	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.50
Conceded per game	1.80	1.50
Match goals	4.10	3.00	3.32
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	100%	60%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	90%	50%	65%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	4.67
Corners conceded	9.00	4.33
Match total	16.00	9.00	10.50
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.33
Opponent cards	2.00	3.00
Match total	4.00	3.33	3.09
Over 3.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	0% 0/3

	Rennes	Marseille	League
Corners
Corners won	7.78	5.75
Corners conceded	5.00	4.50
Match total	12.78	10.25	10.50
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	100% 9/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	78% 7/9	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	1.60	2.00
Match total	3.40	3.90	3.09
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 93 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.69league 2.93

Red cards0.24league 0.15

Cards 5+35%league 15%

Fouls24.1league 22.7

Penalties0.29league 0.44

Home wins40%league 26%

Rennes10 with this referee

Record5-3-2 Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W28 Nov 25A · Metz1–00
W10 May 25H · Nice2–01
L25 Jan 25A · Monaco2–33
D21 Sep 24H · Lens1–12
D17 Dec 23A · Toulouse0–02

Marseille6 with this referee

Record4-1-1 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

L22 Feb 25A · Auxerre0–33
W19 May 24A · LE Havre2–10
W26 Aug 23H · Stade Brestois 292–00
D14 Aug 22A · Stade Brestois 291–14
W10 Apr 22H · Montpellier2–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.