Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 40). Absences weigh more on Monaco. Rennes had 14.9 days of rest, Monaco 13.9 and had to travel 854 km.
Away travel854 kmRest days14.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Rennes37%
Draw27%
Monaco35%
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Monaco36%
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Monaco36%
Rennes30%
Draw27%
Monaco43%
Rennes37%
Draw27%
Monaco35%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 6
Team strength
Rennes
Monaco
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
52
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
63
AttackIn forecast
45
39
DefenceIn forecast
56
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesMonaco
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.89
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
83%
Scored inContext
83%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
12.50
ShotsContext
12.42
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
36%
On target shareContext
31%
8.55
Shots in the boxContext
8.64
66%
Box shareContext
70%
13%
ConversionContext
16%
2.36
OffsidesContext
2.78
13.83
Shots allowedContext
12.33
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
4.45
BlocksContext
4.00
2.55
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
67%
Save rateContext
60%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
452
PassesContext
493
386
Accurate passesContext
417
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.08
FoulsContext
12.67
12.17
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.47
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.40
ShotsContext
13.00
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
36%
On target shareContext
33%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.22
66%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.17
12.00
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.67
BlocksContext
4.70
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
70%
Save rateContext
68%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
468
PassesContext
453
401
Accurate passesContext
381
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.89
13.00
FoulsContext
13.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.44
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Monaco
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel854 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Nov | 13.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 854 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
22M. Salisu
5J. Kehrer
4J. Teze
20K. Ouattara
28M. Coulibaly
6D. Zakaria
27K. Diatta
31Ansu Fati
11M. Akliouche
19G. Ilenikhena
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Monaco
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.9 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Monaco-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.00
Monaco · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.80
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Strasbourg | W 4–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Toulouse | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nice | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Auxerre | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| LE Havre | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Lens | D 0–0 H | L 1–4 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | W 5–3 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Lorient | L 0–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 12 of 30 · 1.20 per game | 17 of 30 · 1.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Rennes wins1 draws6 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.75
Over 2.563%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets13% · 13%
- 25 Jan 2025Monaco3–2Rennes
- 5 Oct 2024Rennes1–2Monaco
- 7 Apr 2024Monaco1–0Rennes
- 9 Dec 2023Rennes1–2Monaco
- 27 May 2023Rennes2–0Monaco
- 13 Aug 2022Monaco1–1Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.75 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 67% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 58% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 75% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Rennes | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.42 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 8.75 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 7/12 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 42% 5/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 4/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.25 | 2.42 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.67 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 4.92 | 4.50 | 4.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 10/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 7/12 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Rennes | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.10 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.70 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.20 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.70 | 4.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 3.87
Red cards0.17league 0.33
Cards 5+17%league 39%
Fouls23.8league 24.4
Penalties0.67league 0.48
Home wins50%league 51%
RennesNo previous matches with this referee.
MonacoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes12 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Monaco12 games · scored 24 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
5
5
31-45
4
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
7
6
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
