Rennes vs Nantes – 26 Apr 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 31 Sun, Apr 26 · 16:15 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 5th · 53 pts · 30 played LDWWW

2–1Full time

Nantes 17th · 20 pts · 30 played LDDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Rennes were clear favourites.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 17). Absences weigh more on Nantes. Rennes had 7 days of rest, Nantes 3.9 and had to travel 100 km.

Away travel100 kmRest days7 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Rennes72%

Draw18%

Nantes10%

Expected goals 2.36 – 0.79

Rennes69%

Draw19%

Nantes12%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.81

Rennes71%

Draw18%

Nantes11%

Expected goals 2.29 – 0.79

Rennes65%

Draw21%

Nantes14%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.89

Rennes71%

Draw18%

Nantes11%

Expected goals 2.36 – 0.82

Over 2.5 61% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rennes)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.41
Matches 124

Team strength

Rennes

Nantes

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

63 AttackIn forecast 24

39 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Nantes

1.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

1.37 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.09

80% Scored inContext 57%

33% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.63 ShotsContext 10.17

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.21

36% On target shareContext 30%

8.66 Shots in the boxContext 6.48

62% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.46 OffsidesContext 1.76

12.03 Shots allowedContext 13.00

3.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

3.72 BlocksContext 4.08

2.73 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

72% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 42%

474 PassesContext 347

404 Accurate passesContext 277

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.97 FoulsContext 12.10

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.67

1.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.03

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.59 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

90% Scored inContext 40%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.30 ShotsContext 10.90

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

36% On target shareContext 29%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

61% Box shareContext 66%

14% ConversionContext 6%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.75

9.70 Shots allowedContext 10.30

2.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

2.90 BlocksContext 3.00

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

90% Save rateContext 66%

56% PossessionIn forecast 40%

503 PassesContext 318

427 Accurate passesContext 248

85% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.75

12.60 FoulsContext 12.50

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.50

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,395 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel100 km685 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 19 Apr	3.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	100 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,395 km	685 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	2 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-4-2

30B. Samba(G)

26Q. Merlin 3L. Brassier 48A. Aït Boudlal 36A. Seidu

11Mousa Al Ta'mari 45M. Camara 21V. Rongier 10L. Blas

9E. Lepaul 7B. Embolo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Lopes(G)

27D. Machado 3N. Cozza 2Ali Yusuf 24F. Guilbert

28I. Sissoko 8J. Lepenant

66L. Leroux 10M. Abline 21M. Kaba

37I. Ganago

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes+1.3 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Nantes-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 1.87points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 8-4-3
Scored: 1.73
Conceded: 1.00

Nantes · Away 0.73points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-8
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.47

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Rennes	Nantes
Strasbourg	W 3–0 AW 4–1 H	L 2–3 HL 0–1 A
Angers	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 HL 1–4 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 4–3 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Metz	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H
Lille	L 1–2 HW 2–0 A	L 0–1 AL 0–2 H
Nice	W 4–0 AL 1–2 H	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Toulouse	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	D 2–2 A
Auxerre	W 3–0 AD 2–2 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	W 3–1 HL 0–5 A	L 0–3 AL 0–1 H
Lens	L 1–3 AD 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Monaco	L 0–4 AW 4–1 H	L 1–3 AL 3–5 H
Lorient	L 0–2 HL 0–4 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
LE Havre	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Paris FC	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Lyon	W 3–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Marseille	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
Points	52 of 87 · 1.79 per game	19 of 87 · 0.66 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

6 Rennes wins1 draws2 Nantes wins

Goals per game1.78 – 0.78 Over 2.567% Both scored44% Clean sheets44% · 11%

20 Sep 2025Nantes2–2Rennes
18 Apr 2025Rennes2–1Nantes
8 Dec 2024Nantes1–0Rennes
20 Apr 2024Nantes0–3Rennes
1 Oct 2023Rennes3–1Nantes
26 Feb 2023Nantes0–1Rennes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.73	0.83
Conceded per game	1.37	1.63
Match goals	3.10	2.47	3.15
Over 1.5	80%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	43%	61%
Over 3.5	50%	23%
Both teams scored	53%	47%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	20%
Failed to score	20%	43%
Games	30	30

	Rennes	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	0.60
Conceded per game	1.00	1.30
Match goals	3.20	1.90	3.15
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	80%	30%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	30%
Failed to score	10%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	3.25
Corners conceded	4.23	5.57
Match total	9.93	8.82	9.16
Over 8.5	63% 19/30	61% 17/28
Over 9.5	53% 16/30	43% 12/28
Over 10.5	40% 12/30	39% 11/28
Cards
Cards	1.77	2.13
Opponent cards	2.20	2.33
Match total	3.97	4.46	3.93
Over 3.5	60% 18/30	70% 21/30
Over 4.5	43% 13/30	43% 13/30

	Rennes	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	6.10	3.44
Corners conceded	3.30	5.11
Match total	9.40	8.55	9.16
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.50
Opponent cards	2.20	2.40
Match total	3.80	4.90	3.93
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 124 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.14league 3.66

Red cards0.21league 0.27

Cards 5+47%league 36%

Fouls24.4league 23.7

Penalties0.41league 0.36

Home wins54%league 47%

Rennes14 with this referee

Record5-3-6 Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4 Pens for · against0 · 1

W13 Feb 26H · Paris Saint Germain3–10
L28 Apr 24H · Stade Brestois 294–54
L3 Mar 24H · Lorient1–22
L8 Oct 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–31
L9 Apr 23A · Lyon1–32

Nantes8 with this referee

Record1-3-4 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 2

L6 Dec 25H · Lens1–21
D27 Sep 25A · Toulouse2–23
L17 Aug 25H · Paris Saint Germain0–11
D26 Jan 25H · Lyon1–13
L20 Dec 23A · Lyon0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.