Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain – 13 Feb 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 22 Fri, Feb 13 · 18:00 Roazhon Park, Rennes

Rennes 6th · 31 pts · 21 played WDLLL

3–1Full time

Paris Saint Germain 1st · 51 pts · 21 played WWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Paris Saint Germain. Rennes had 6.1 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 4.9 and had to travel 308 km.

Away travel308 kmRest days6.1 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Rennes11%

Draw17%

Paris Saint Germain72%

Expected goals 0.90 – 2.51

Rennes14%

Draw21%

Paris Saint Germain66%

Expected goals 0.85 – 2.11

Rennes11%

Draw17%

Paris Saint Germain72%

Expected goals 0.89 – 2.47

Rennes8%

Draw14%

Paris Saint Germain79%

Expected goals 0.80 – 2.82

Rennes12%

Draw18%

Paris Saint Germain70%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.34

Over 2.5 66% Both score 55% Likeliest score 0–2

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rennes)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien

Cards per match 4.4
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 117

Team strength

Rennes

Paris Saint Germain

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

63 AttackIn forecast 91

39 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Paris Saint Germain

1.48 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.29

1.62 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.76

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.85

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.64

76% Scored inContext 90%

24% Clean sheetsContext 52%

12.81 ShotsContext 16.86

4.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.43

35% On target shareContext 38%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.19

62% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.40 OffsidesContext 1.55

13.05 Shots allowedContext 8.24

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.28

4.15 BlocksContext 2.71

2.84 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

68% Save rateContext 73%

52% PossessionIn forecast 69%

456 PassesContext 716

389 Accurate passesContext 655

85% Pass accuracyContext 92%

6.84 Team ratingContext 7.06

11.90 FoulsContext 9.86

11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 8.71

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.05

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 21 and 21 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.82

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.78

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

70% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.80 ShotsContext 18.40

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.70

33% On target shareContext 36%

7.60 Shots in the boxContext 12.30

59% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 13%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.70 Shots allowedContext 8.00

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

4.10 BlocksContext 2.56

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

73% Save rateContext 75%

53% PossessionIn forecast 67%

456 PassesContext 675

387 Accurate passesContext 612

85% Pass accuracyContext 91%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.09

11.80 FoulsContext 8.60

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 0.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,541 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris Saint Germain

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel308 km794 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Feb	4.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,541 km	794 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	8.8	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30B. Samba(G)

26Q. Merlin 3L. Brassier 24A. Rouault 18M. Nagida

45M. Camara 21V. Rongier

70A. Nordin 17S. Szymański 11Mousa Al Ta'mari

9E. Lepaul

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

25Nuno Mendes 51W. Pacho 6I. Zabarnyi 2A. Hakimi

87João Neves 17Vitinha 33W. Zaïre-Emery

7K. Kvaratskhelia 10M. Dembélé 14D. Doué

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes-0.2 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Paris Saint Germain+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home 1.80points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 5-3-2
Scored: 1.90
Conceded: 1.10

Paris Saint Germain · Away 2.09points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 7-2-2
Scored: 1.91
Conceded: 1.09

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain
Lens	L 1–3 AD 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Monaco	L 0–4 AW 4–1 H	L 0–1 A
Lorient	L 0–2 HL 0–4 A	D 1–1 A
LE Havre	D 1–1 HD 2–2 A	W 3–0 H
Lille	W 2–0 A	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–1 H	W 3–0 A
Metz	W 1–0 A	W 3–2 A
Paris FC	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 H
Strasbourg	W 4–1 H	W 2–1 AD 3–3 H
Toulouse	D 2–2 A	W 6–3 A
Nice	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 H
Auxerre	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
Nantes	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 A
Lyon	W 3–1 H	W 3–2 A
Angers	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 H
Marseille	W 1–0 H	W 5–0 HL 0–1 A
Points	31 of 60 · 1.55 per game	48 of 60 · 2.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

3 Rennes wins1 draws5 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.89 Over 2.544% Both scored44% Clean sheets33% · 22%

6 Dec 2025Paris Saint Germain5–0Rennes
8 Mar 2025Rennes1–4Paris Saint Germain
27 Sep 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Rennes
25 Feb 2024Paris Saint Germain1–1Rennes
8 Oct 2023Rennes1–3Paris Saint Germain
19 Mar 2023Paris Saint Germain0–2Rennes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.48	2.29
Conceded per game	1.62	0.76
Match goals	3.10	3.05	3.41
Over 1.5	81%	71%
Over 2.5	62%	52%	66%
Over 3.5	57%	29%
Both teams scored	57%	38%	55%
Clean sheets	24%	52%
Failed to score	24%	10%
Games	21	21

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	2.70
Conceded per game	1.70	0.70
Match goals	3.00	3.40	3.41
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	80%	66%
Over 3.5	50%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	5.43	5.26
Corners conceded	4.67	3.26
Match total	10.10	8.52	9.17
Over 8.5	67% 14/21	47% 9/19
Over 9.5	52% 11/21	21% 4/19
Over 10.5	43% 9/21	11% 2/19
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.10
Opponent cards	2.29	1.67
Match total	4.15	2.77	3.99
Over 3.5	62% 13/21	24% 5/21
Over 4.5	48% 10/21	10% 2/21

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	5.90
Corners conceded	5.40	2.80
Match total	11.30	8.70	9.17
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	0.80
Opponent cards	1.90	1.50
Match total	3.30	2.30	3.99
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 117 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.20league 3.66

Red cards0.21league 0.31

Cards 5+47%league 36%

Fouls24.5league 24.2

Penalties0.42league 0.41

Home wins52%league 49%

Rennes13 with this referee

Record4-3-6 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1

L28 Apr 24H · Stade Brestois 294–54
L3 Mar 24H · Lorient1–22
L8 Oct 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–31
L9 Apr 23A · Lyon1–32
W15 Jan 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–00

Paris Saint Germain18 with this referee

Record13-3-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8 Pens for · against5 · 2 Reds2

W4 Jan 26H · Paris FC2–11
W9 Nov 25A · Lyon3–22
D5 Oct 25A · Lille1–11
W17 Aug 25A · Nantes1–01
W1 Feb 25A · Stade Brestois 295–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.