Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain – 23 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 23 · 19:45 Parc des Princes, Paris

Rennes Neutral

2–2Full time

Paris Saint Germain Neutral

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Paris Saint Germain were slight favourites.

Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rennes. Rennes had 98 days of rest, Paris Saint Germain 98 and had to travel 0 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel0 kmRest days98 · 98Matches / 14d0 · 0

Rennes20%

Draw21%

Paris Saint Germain59%

Expected goals 1.10 – 2.05

Rennes18%

Draw22%

Paris Saint Germain60%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.90

Rennes19%

Draw21%

Paris Saint Germain60%

Expected goals 1.08 – 2.06

Rennes15%

Draw18%

Paris Saint Germain67%

Expected goals 0.98 – 2.30

Rennes20%

Draw22%

Paris Saint Germain57%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.91

Over 2.5 61% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

22°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 37%

Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 86

Team strength

Rennes

Paris Saint Germain

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

63 AttackIn forecast 91

39 DefenceIn forecast 83

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris Saint Germain

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rennes

Paris Saint Germain

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

1.54 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

90% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.50 ShotsContext 16.50

6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.40

37% On target shareContext 33%

10.90 Shots in the boxContext 10.60

66% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 12%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.71

12.40 Shots allowedContext 10.10

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.80 BlocksContext 3.43

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

72% Save rateContext 73%

57% PossessionIn forecast 63%

494 PassesContext 649

421 Accurate passesContext 582

85% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.07

11.90 FoulsContext 8.30

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rennes

Rest98 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris Saint Germain

Rest98 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 6	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	98Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May	98Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	308 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

30B. Samba(G)

18M. Nagida 48A. Aït Boudlal 4C. Cresswell 95P. Frankowski

21V. Rongier

90I. Soumaré 28A. Thomasson 17S. Szymański 11Mousa Al Ta'mari

9E. Lepaul

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris Saint Germain Confirmed XI

4-3-3

39M. Safonov(G)

21L. Hernández 51W. Pacho 5Marquinhos 2A. Hakimi

87João Neves 17Vitinha 33W. Zaïre-Emery

7K. Kvaratskhelia 10M. Dembélé 14D. Doué

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rennes Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris Saint Germain Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rennes+0.5 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Paris Saint Germain-0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Rennes · Home No home games yet this season.

Paris Saint Germain · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Rennes wins1 draws5 Paris Saint Germain wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.80 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets30% · 20%

13 Feb 2026Rennes3–1Paris Saint Germain
6 Dec 2025Paris Saint Germain5–0Rennes
8 Mar 2025Rennes1–4Paris Saint Germain
27 Sep 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Rennes
25 Feb 2024Paris Saint Germain1–1Rennes
8 Oct 2023Rennes1–3Paris Saint Germain

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.15
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	61%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	58%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	2.10
Conceded per game	1.50	1.00
Match goals	3.60	3.10	3.15
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	80%	61%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.25
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	3.13
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Rennes	Paris Saint Germain	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	7.20
Corners conceded	3.60	3.60
Match total	10.60	10.80	10.25
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	1.10
Match total	3.60	3.00	3.13
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 86 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.80league 2.88

Red cards0.24league 0.25

Cards 5+37%league 13%

Fouls24.9league 24.4

Penalties0.37league 0.50

Home wins38%league 25%

Rennes11 with this referee

Record5-5-1 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 2

D22 Mar 26H · Metz0–01
D28 Sep 25H · Lens0–03
D19 Oct 24A · Stade Brestois 291–12
D25 Feb 24A · Paris Saint Germain1–13
W13 Jan 24H · Nice2–01

Paris Saint Germain7 with this referee

Record4-3-0 Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.4 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds1

D2 May 26H · Lorient2–21
D25 Feb 24H · Rennes1–15
W3 Dec 23A · LE Havre2–02
W21 Oct 23H · Strasbourg3–02
D12 Aug 23H · Lorient0–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.