Rennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 36). Rennes had 3.7 days of rest, Strasbourg 3.7 and had to travel 698 km.
Away travel698 kmRest days3.7 · 3.7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Strasbourg37%
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Strasbourg37%
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Strasbourg37%
Rennes29%
Draw26%
Strasbourg44%
Rennes36%
Draw27%
Strasbourg37%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rennes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceThomas Leonard
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 80
Team strength
Rennes
Strasbourg
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
63
AttackIn forecast
40
39
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStrasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RennesStrasbourg
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.94
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.80
ShotsContext
11.40
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
35%
On target shareContext
45%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
65%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
18%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.00
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
64%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
462
PassesContext
497
397
Accurate passesContext
436
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.91
11.80
FoulsContext
12.30
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
2.01
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
80%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
11.90
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
35%
On target shareContext
45%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
65%
Box shareContext
77%
11%
ConversionContext
19%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.44
13.10
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.00
BlocksContext
2.78
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
64%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
462
PassesContext
511
397
Accurate passesContext
449
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.80
FoulsContext
12.30
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rennes
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,112 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Strasbourg
Rest3.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel698 km754 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rennes |
Strasbourg |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct | 3.7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 698 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,112 km | 754 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
39M. Meïté
9E. Lepaul
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
24L. Høgsberg
22G. Doué
7Diego Moreira
32V. Barco
29S. El Mourabet
42A. Ouattara
19J. Enciso
27S. Amo-Ameyaw
9J. Panichelli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Strasbourg
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rennes+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Strasbourg-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Rennes · Home
1.60points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.00
Strasbourg · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Rennes | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | D 2–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | D 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Angers | D 1–1 A | W 5–0 H |
| Marseille | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 10 of 18 · 1.67 per game | 12 of 18 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Rennes wins1 draws3 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.38 – 1.13
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 2 Feb 2025Rennes1–0Strasbourg
- 25 Aug 2024Strasbourg3–1Rennes
- 31 Mar 2024Strasbourg2–0Rennes
- 29 Oct 2023Rennes1–1Strasbourg
- 1 Feb 2023Rennes3–0Strasbourg
- 1 Oct 2022Strasbourg1–3Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rennes | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Rennes | Strasbourg | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rennes | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.50 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.00 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Rennes | Strasbourg | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 6.89 | 9.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.30 | 4.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 80 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 3.91
Red cards0.26league 0.31
Cards 5+43%league 40%
Fouls24.1league 24.5
Penalties0.26league 0.49
Home wins36%league 52%
Rennes9 with this referee
Record5-0-4
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W30 Mar 25A · Angers3–00
- L18 Jan 25H · Stade Brestois 291–22
- L5 Oct 24H · Monaco1–22
- W26 Jan 24A · Lyon3–22
- W2 Jan 23H · Nice2–11
Strasbourg4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D8 Dec 24H · Reims0–01
- L30 Aug 24A · Lyon3–42
- L28 Apr 24H · Nice1–32
- L18 Feb 24H · Lorient1–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rennes10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 21 · conceded 12
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
5
61-75
6
7
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
5
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
