Riga
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Jul 14 · 18:00
Stadions Skonto, Riga
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel2,375 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Riga—%
Draw—%
Ararat-Armenia—%
Weather (Riga)
No weather data yet
RefereeBence Csonka
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 3
Team strength
Riga
Ararat-Armenia
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
7
Current StrengthIn forecast
7
7
AttackIn forecast
8
8
DefenceIn forecast
8
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArarat-Armenia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RigaArarat-Armenia
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.67
ShotsContext
12.33
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
23%
On target shareContext
38%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
—
63%
Box shareContext
—
6%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
—
18.33
Shots allowedContext
11.33
7.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.67
BlocksContext
—
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
71%
Save rateContext
58%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
—
368
PassesContext
—
255
Accurate passesContext
—
69%
Pass accuracyContext
—
7.07
Team ratingContext
—
20.00
FoulsContext
13.00
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.33
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Riga
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,750 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Ararat-Armenia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,375 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Riga |
Ararat-Armenia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 7 Jul | 7UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 7 Jul |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,375 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,750 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | — | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Riga
Confirmed XI
1K. Zviedris(G)
33Paulo
21B. Musah
13R. Jurkovskis
17A. Salazar
4O. Galo
40A. Ankrah
8I. Siqueira Augusto
7R. Aouani
18S. Oulad M'Hand
19M. Badamosi
Ararat-Armenia
Confirmed XI
98João Bravim(G)
16E. Grigoryan
3J. Julio
43Bruno Wilson
13K. Hovhannisyan
19K. Muradyan
20A. Tera
2Hugo Oliveira
7Z. Shaghoyan
91Sandro Lima
77A. Serobyan
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Riga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Ararat-Armenia
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Riga · Home
No home games yet this season.
Ararat-Armenia · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Riga wins0 draws1 Ararat-Armenia wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 7 Jul 2026Ararat-Armenia2–0Riga
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Riga | Ararat-Armenia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Riga | Ararat-Armenia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Riga | Ararat-Armenia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Riga | Ararat-Armenia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 12.67 | 10.00 | |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.30 | |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bence Csonka 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.33league 4.00
Red cards0.00league 0.35
Cards 5+100%league 29%
Fouls39.0
Penalties0.00league 0.47
Home wins33%league 41%
RigaNo previous matches with this referee.
Ararat-ArmeniaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Riga1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Ararat-Armenia1 games · scored 2 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Riga10 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.