Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rizespor. Rizespor had 8.9 days of rest, Alanyaspor 8 and had to travel 890 km.
Away travel890 kmRest days8.9 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rizespor52%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor24%
Rizespor45%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor29%
Rizespor52%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor24%
Rizespor44%
Draw26%
Alanyaspor30%
Rizespor51%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor24%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not recorded
Team strength
Rizespor
Alanyaspor
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
22
AttackIn forecast
18
35
DefenceIn forecast
24
55
Form indexContext
39
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporAlanyaspor
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.80
0.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
67%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
17.33
ShotsContext
9.00
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.33
33%
On target shareContext
26%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
55%
Box shareContext
56%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.00
9.67
Shots allowedContext
12.67
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.50
BlocksContext
2.67
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
80%
Save rateContext
80%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
466
PassesContext
306
404
Accurate passesContext
234
87%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.67
FoulsContext
19.00
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.67
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.10
ShotsContext
9.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
36%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
57%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.78
BlocksContext
3.56
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
70%
Save rateContext
71%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
414
PassesContext
376
349
Accurate passesContext
307
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.90
FoulsContext
15.20
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
WLW
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,034 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 55 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 890 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,034 km | 1,126 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
17Z. Ariss
93M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
99E. Bulut
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
23A. Kutucu
9A. Sowe
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
48Paulo Victor(G)
20F. Aksoy
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
55B. Gezek
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
10I. Hagi
17A. Usluoğlu
22Paolo Fernandes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alanyaspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Alanyaspor · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
1 Rizespor wins3 draws2 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game0.83 – 0.83
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets33% · 50%
- 25 Jan 2026Rizespor1–1Alanyaspor
- 16 Aug 2025Alanyaspor0–0Rizespor
- 2 Mar 2025Rizespor3–1Alanyaspor
- 28 Sep 2024Alanyaspor1–0Rizespor
- 20 Jan 2024Alanyaspor2–1Rizespor
- 19 Aug 2023Rizespor0–0Alanyaspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Rizespor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.30 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.50 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.33 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Rizespor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 4.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.86 | 9.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.20 | 3.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Rizespor3 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Alanyaspor3 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
8
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
