Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
Rizespor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (23 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rizespor. Rizespor had 8 days of rest, Antalyaspor 6.7 and had to travel 964 km.
Away travel964 kmRest days8 · 6.7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Rizespor56%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor19%
Rizespor52%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor23%
Rizespor55%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor20%
Rizespor48%
Draw27%
Antalyaspor25%
Rizespor56%
Draw25%
Antalyaspor19%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Aksu
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 8
Team strength
Rizespor
Antalyaspor
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
22
AttackIn forecast
11
35
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporAntalyaspor
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
75%
Scored inContext
67%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
11.83
ShotsContext
8.29
3.46
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
29%
On target shareContext
40%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.43
53%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.35
OffsidesContext
2.05
13.83
Shots allowedContext
13.67
4.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
4.09
BlocksContext
3.17
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
69%
Save rateContext
67%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
375
PassesContext
325
306
Accurate passesContext
255
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.29
FoulsContext
11.63
12.38
Fouls sufferedContext
14.26
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
8.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
51%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.30
Shots allowedContext
11.60
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.90
BlocksContext
3.00
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
65%
Save rateContext
69%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
350
PassesContext
304
283
Accurate passesContext
232
81%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.90
FoulsContext
12.10
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.56
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel964 km934 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 6.7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 964 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,940 km | 934 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
17A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
3K. Paal
4H. Türkmen
89V. Sarı
7B. Balcı
23Jesper Ceesay
6S. Dikmen
70D. Sinik
26N. Storm
11S. Ballet
22S. van de Streek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Antalyaspor-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.17points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-6
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.42
Antalyaspor · Away
1.00points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-6
- Scored
- 0.58
- Conceded
- 0.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 AL 1–2 H | D 0–0 AW 2–1 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–4 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Goztepe | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–5 H | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 24 of 69 · 1.04 per game | 24 of 69 · 1.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 Rizespor wins1 draws1 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.00
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 3 Oct 2025Antalyaspor2–5Rizespor
- 8 Mar 2025Antalyaspor2–1Rizespor
- 4 Oct 2024Rizespor2–1Antalyaspor
- 14 Apr 2024Rizespor3–0Antalyaspor
- 26 Nov 2023Antalyaspor0–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.58 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 54% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 58% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 33% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Rizespor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.30 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.68 | 3.92 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.68 | 5.96 | |
| Match total | 8.36 | 9.88 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 36% 8/22 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 5/22 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.46 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.34 | 4.50 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 15/24 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Rizespor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 7.20 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 11.30 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.90 | 4.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Aksu Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.38league 4.43
Red cards0.13league 0.22
Cards 5+0%league 45%
Fouls22.3league 25.9
Penalties0.00league 0.25
Home wins25%league 38%
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
Antalyaspor3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Nov 25A · Konyaspor0–02
- W17 Aug 25A · Genclerbirligi1–02
- L24 May 25A · Eyüpspor1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor24 games · scored 31 · conceded 35
5
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
7
4
46-60
2
9
61-75
9
9
76-90
Antalyaspor24 games · scored 24 · conceded 38
3
8
0-15
4
4
16-30
5
6
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
10
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
6
61-75
5
2
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
