Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 21). Rizespor had 15.2 days of rest, Fenerbahce 14 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days15.2 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Rizespor18%
Draw23%
Fenerbahce60%
Rizespor18%
Draw23%
Fenerbahce59%
Rizespor18%
Draw23%
Fenerbahce60%
Rizespor13%
Draw20%
Fenerbahce67%
Rizespor18%
Draw23%
Fenerbahce58%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 8
Team strength
Rizespor
Fenerbahce
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
22
AttackIn forecast
75
35
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporFenerbahce
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.08
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
-0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
75%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
42%
11.75
ShotsContext
17.83
3.08
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
26%
On target shareContext
36%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
10.75
56%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.30
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.42
Shots allowedContext
8.50
4.82
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.92
4.09
BlocksContext
3.44
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
73%
Save rateContext
78%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
391
PassesContext
485
320
Accurate passesContext
422
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.79
Team ratingContext
7.02
14.17
FoulsContext
13.17
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
2.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.42
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.10
ShotsContext
16.40
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.80
27%
On target shareContext
42%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.30
53%
Box shareContext
52%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.50
Shots allowedContext
10.20
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.22
BlocksContext
3.00
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
76%
Save rateContext
83%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
385
PassesContext
450
314
Accurate passesContext
384
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.96
14.70
FoulsContext
12.20
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest15.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fenerbahce
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel970 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Nov | 14Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
6G. Papanikolaou
18M. Buljubasic
99E. Bulut
20Q. Laçi
19J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Sowe
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
22M. Mercan
24J. Oosterwolde
37M. Škriniar
18M. Müldür
5İ. Yüksek
9M. Aktürkoğlu
7Fred
21Marco Asensio
45D. Nene
10J. Durán
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fenerbahce-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.17
Fenerbahce · Away
2.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-0
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | W 4–0 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 5–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 13 of 30 · 1.30 per game | 22 of 30 · 2.20 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Rizespor wins0 draws4 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game0.75 – 4.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 2 Feb 2025Fenerbahce3–2Rizespor
- 25 Aug 2024Rizespor0–5Fenerbahce
- 17 Feb 2024Rizespor1–3Fenerbahce
- 1 Oct 2023Fenerbahce5–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.08 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.92 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 58% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 42% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 17% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| Rizespor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.93 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.80 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 3.89 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 9.00 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.83 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 3.42 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.92 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% 7/12 | 75% 9/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 6/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Rizespor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 9.60 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 6.30 | 4.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 4.54
Red cards0.00league 0.26
Cards 5+13%league 49%
Fouls22.6league 26.0
Penalties0.13league 0.26
Home wins50%league 38%
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L28 Sep 25H · Kasimpasa1–21
Fenerbahce1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 Aug 25A · Genclerbirligi3–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor12 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Fenerbahce12 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
8
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
1
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
