Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Fenerbahce were slight favourites.
Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 24). Absences weigh more on Fenerbahce. Rizespor had 20 days of rest, Fenerbahce 20.1 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days20 · 20.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Rizespor22%
Draw20%
Fenerbahce58%
Rizespor22%
Draw24%
Fenerbahce54%
Rizespor21%
Draw20%
Fenerbahce59%
Rizespor16%
Draw18%
Fenerbahce66%
Rizespor22%
Draw21%
Fenerbahce58%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 5.2
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 21
Team strength
Rizespor
Fenerbahce
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
63
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
22
AttackIn forecast
75
35
DefenceIn forecast
53
31
Form indexContext
48
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFenerbahce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporFenerbahce
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
xGVia Att/Def
2.93
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
67%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.33
ShotsContext
18.80
4.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
8.40
32%
On target shareContext
45%
7.83
Shots in the boxContext
14.20
56%
Box shareContext
71%
8%
ConversionContext
17%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.20
14.33
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
4.80
BlocksContext
3.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
84%
Save rateContext
74%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
446
PassesContext
473
379
Accurate passesContext
416
85%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.09
11.17
FoulsContext
13.60
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
2.93
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.83
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.20
ShotsContext
16.00
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.22
30%
On target shareContext
45%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
11.89
56%
Box shareContext
72%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.13
14.60
Shots allowedContext
13.22
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
4.67
BlocksContext
3.89
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
73%
Save rateContext
77%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
430
PassesContext
441
364
Accurate passesContext
378
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.00
FoulsContext
13.67
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.44
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
LWLWD
Rest20 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 7 pts vs 9.2 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
Fenerbahce
WLDDW
Rest20.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel970 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 48 · 8 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Fenerbahce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20Süper Lig 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 20.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 20 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
17Z. Ariss
93M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
23A. Kutucu
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
11A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe
Fenerbahce
Confirmed XI
31Ederson(G)
3A. Brown
15N. Aké
37M. Škriniar
27Nélson Semedo
6M. Guendouzi
91N. Kanté
7M. Aktürkoğlu
10Marco Asensio
11M. Greenwood
19V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fenerbahce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.7 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Fenerbahce-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Fenerbahce · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Fenerbahce |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 2–0 A | W 8–0 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Samsunspor | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Konyaspor | W 1–0 A | W 4–2 H |
| Points | 9 of 12 · 2.25 per game | 10 of 12 · 2.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Rizespor wins1 draws5 Fenerbahce wins
Goals per game1.17 – 3.83
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 17 Apr 2026Fenerbahce2–2Rizespor
- 23 Nov 2025Rizespor2–5Fenerbahce
- 2 Feb 2025Fenerbahce3–2Rizespor
- 25 Aug 2024Rizespor0–5Fenerbahce
- 17 Feb 2024Rizespor1–3Fenerbahce
- 1 Oct 2023Fenerbahce5–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.17 | 3.67 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Rizespor | Fenerbahce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.40 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 3.50 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Rizespor | Fenerbahce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 6.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.13 | 9.17 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 4.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.90league 4.10
Red cards0.33league 0.19
Cards 5+52%league 45%
Fouls24.5league 25.1
Penalties0.14league 0.34
Home wins52%league 47%
Rizespor4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W13 Apr 26H · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–12
- L8 Feb 26H · Galatasaray0–31
- W3 Oct 25A · Antalyaspor5–24
- L10 May 25A · Konyaspor1–22
Fenerbahce4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W15 Dec 25H · Konyaspor4–02
- W9 Nov 25H · Kayserispor4–21
- W14 Sep 25H · Trabzonspor1–04
- W18 May 25H · Eyüpspor2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor6 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Fenerbahce6 games · scored 16 · conceded 6
5
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Fenerbahce10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
5
1
0-15
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
