Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Rizespor
12th · 33 pts · 28 played
WWLLW
2–1Full time
Gazişehir Gaziantep
10th · 34 pts · 28 played
DDWLD
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rizespor. Rizespor had 4 days of rest, Gazişehir Gaziantep 9.1 and had to travel 517 km.
Away travel517 kmRest days4 · 9.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Rizespor50%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep25%
Rizespor46%
Draw26%
Gazişehir Gaziantep27%
Rizespor51%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep24%
Rizespor42%
Draw27%
Gazişehir Gaziantep31%
Rizespor50%
Draw25%
Gazişehir Gaziantep25%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOzan Ergun
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.12
- Matches 17
Team strength
RizesporGazişehir Gaziantep
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
22
AttackIn forecast
15
35
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGazişehir Gaziantep
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporGazişehir Gaziantep
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
75%
Scored inContext
75%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
11.82
ShotsContext
12.71
3.61
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.52
31%
On target shareContext
34%
6.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
55%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.86
13.36
Shots allowedContext
13.29
4.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.93
3.96
BlocksContext
3.43
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.26
70%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
378
PassesContext
375
309
Accurate passesContext
310
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.54
FoulsContext
13.29
12.64
Fouls sufferedContext
16.39
2.36
Yellow cardsContext
2.89
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.50
ShotsContext
11.20
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
39%
On target shareContext
38%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
56%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.00
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.40
BlocksContext
3.40
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.22
71%
Save rateContext
62%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
361
PassesContext
350
295
Accurate passesContext
285
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.60
FoulsContext
14.00
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
16.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Rest9.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel517 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Apr | 9.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 517 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,940 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
7V. Mihăilă
20Q. Laçi
10I. Olawoyin
50L. Augusto
9A. Sowe
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Confirmed XI
20Z. Görgen(G)
23T. Sanuç
14L. Abena
30N. Sangaré
11C. Lungoyi
3D. Camara
6M. Kabasakal
2Luis Pérez
44A. Maxim
10K. Kozłowski
9M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Gazişehir Gaziantep
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gazişehir Gaziantep+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.43points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-6
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.29
Gazişehir Gaziantep · Away
1.21points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-5
- Scored
- 1.36
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Gazişehir Gaziantep |
|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HW 5–2 A | W 4–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 1–5 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Goztepe | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–5 H | L 1–4 AL 0–4 H |
| Points | 32 of 81 · 1.19 per game | 33 of 81 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Rizespor wins1 draws2 Gazişehir Gaziantep wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 8 Nov 2025Gazişehir Gaziantep2–2Rizespor
- 3 May 2025Rizespor2–0Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 9 Dec 2024Gazişehir Gaziantep1–0Rizespor
- 17 Mar 2024Rizespor3–1Gazişehir Gaziantep
- 6 Nov 2023Gazişehir Gaziantep2–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 64% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 64% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Rizespor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.68 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.15 | |
| Match total | 8.56 | 10.26 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 12/25 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 10/25 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 7/25 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.43 | 3.07 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 6.07 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 16/28 | 86% 24/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 75% 21/28 | |
| Rizespor | Gazişehir Gaziantep | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 10.50 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 5.20 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ozan Ergun Türkiye · 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.59league 4.39
Red cards0.35league 0.21
Cards 5+41%league 44%
Fouls23.7league 26.1
Penalties0.12league 0.27
Home wins59%league 40%
Rizespor3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Feb 26H · Galatasaray0–31
- W3 Oct 25A · Antalyaspor5–24
- L10 May 25A · Konyaspor1–22
Gazişehir Gaziantep1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W30 Aug 25A · Kasimpasa3–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor28 games · scored 37 · conceded 39
6
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
8
5
31-45
8
5
46-60
3
9
61-75
9
11
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep28 games · scored 37 · conceded 47
4
6
0-15
5
10
16-30
8
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
11
7
61-75
5
15
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
Gazişehir Gaziantep10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
