Rizespor vs Istanbul Basaksehir – 22 Oct 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 3 Wed, Oct 22 · 18:00 Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

Rizespor 12th · 8 pts · 8 played WDLWL

0–0Full time

Istanbul Basaksehir 16th · 6 pts · 8 played WDLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Rizespor had 4.1 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 4 and had to travel 970 km.

Away travel970 kmRest days4.1 · 4Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.27

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir33%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.30

Rizespor33%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir40%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.42

Rizespor40%

Draw27%

Istanbul Basaksehir32%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.23

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rize)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAli Yilmaz

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 8

Team strength

Rizespor

Istanbul Basaksehir

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 36

22 AttackIn forecast 32

35 DefenceIn forecast 34

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rizespor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Istanbul Basaksehir

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rizespor

Istanbul Basaksehir

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.88

1.63 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13

1.36 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

0.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

75% Scored inContext 75%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.00 ShotsContext 9.88

3.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.13

26% On target shareContext 32%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.86

59% Box shareContext 62%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.33

12.25 Shots allowedContext 12.25

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

2.86 BlocksContext 3.13

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

66% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

391 PassesContext 426

321 Accurate passesContext 359

82% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.79

14.13 FoulsContext 12.13

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.75

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.70 ShotsContext 10.30

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

35% On target shareContext 30%

8.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.44

62% Box shareContext 66%

13% ConversionContext 9%

2.56 OffsidesContext 2.33

13.60 Shots allowedContext 12.70

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.67 BlocksContext 3.10

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.80

67% Save rateContext 68%

50% PossessionIn forecast 57%

381 PassesContext 440

315 Accurate passesContext 374

83% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.70 FoulsContext 12.20

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rizespor

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Istanbul Basaksehir

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel970 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rizespor	Istanbul Basaksehir
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Oct	4Süper Lig 2025-2026, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	970 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rizespor Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1E. Canpolat(G)

5C. Højer 3S. Akaydin 4A. Mocsi 37M. Şahin

18M. Buljubašić 6G. Papanikolaou 20Q. Laçi

99E. Bulut 9A. Sowe 77A. Zeqiri

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Istanbul Basaksehir Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16M. Şengezer(G)

21C. Opéri 3J. Opoku 5Léo Duarte 36F. Ebosele

20U. Güneş 2B. Özdemir

10Nuno da Costa 8O. Kemen 23D. Türüç

14E. Shomurodov

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rizespor Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Istanbul Basaksehir Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rizespor+0.2 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Istanbul Basaksehir-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Rizespor · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.75

Istanbul Basaksehir · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Rizespor	Istanbul Basaksehir
Galatasaray	L 1–3 A	L 1–2 H
Alanyaspor	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Goztepe	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 A
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Rizespor wins1 draws2 Istanbul Basaksehir wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.75 Over 2.525% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

18 Jan 2025Istanbul Basaksehir2–0Rizespor
12 Aug 2024Rizespor1–1Istanbul Basaksehir
21 Apr 2024Istanbul Basaksehir2–0Rizespor
2 Dec 2023Rizespor3–2Istanbul Basaksehir

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rizespor	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	0.88
Conceded per game	1.63	1.13
Match goals	2.88	2.00	2.70
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	38%	51%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	63%	63%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	8	8

	Rizespor	Istanbul Basaksehir	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	0.88
Conceded per game	1.63	1.13
Match goals	2.88	2.00	2.70
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	38%	51%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	63%	63%	55%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	8	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rizespor	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	2.33	5.38
Corners conceded	5.33	4.88
Match total	7.66	10.26	9.66
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.50
Opponent cards	1.63	3.13
Match total	4.63	5.63	5.11
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8

	Rizespor	Istanbul Basaksehir	League
Corners
Corners won	3.50	5.50
Corners conceded	5.75	4.90
Match total	9.25	10.40	9.66
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.80
Opponent cards	1.50	3.20
Match total	4.40	6.00	5.11
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ali Yilmaz Türkiye · 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.50league 4.84

Red cards0.00league 0.27

Cards 5+50%league 56%

Fouls25.5league 26.5

Penalties0.50league 0.29

Home wins63%league 38%

Rizespor1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L30 Aug 25A · Galatasaray1–34

Istanbul Basaksehir2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

W17 Sep 25A · Fatih Karagümrük2–02
W3 May 25A · Hatayspor4–21

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.