Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Rizespor had 7 days of rest, Kasimpasa 6.9 and had to travel 970 km.
Away travel970 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rizespor42%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa32%
Rizespor41%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa32%
Rizespor41%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa32%
Rizespor34%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa39%
Rizespor42%
Draw27%
Kasimpasa32%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 6
Team strength
Rizespor
Kasimpasa
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
22
AttackIn forecast
21
35
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKasimpasa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporKasimpasa
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.06
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
60%
Scored inContext
67%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.20
ShotsContext
12.83
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
28%
On target shareContext
18%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
6.83
60%
Box shareContext
50%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.40
Shots allowedContext
10.83
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.80
BlocksContext
3.17
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
68%
Save rateContext
70%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
355
PassesContext
328
283
Accurate passesContext
256
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.40
FoulsContext
16.50
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
3.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.20
ShotsContext
13.60
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
44%
On target shareContext
24%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
64%
Box shareContext
55%
16%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
1.80
16.20
Shots allowedContext
10.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.90
BlocksContext
2.67
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
69%
Save rateContext
62%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
352
PassesContext
365
283
Accurate passesContext
295
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.50
FoulsContext
15.30
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,226 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Kasimpasa
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel970 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Kasimpasa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 6.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 970 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,226 km | 1,238 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
54M. Pala
6G. Papanikolaou
50L. Augusto
20Q. Laçi
19J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Sowe
Kasimpasa
Confirmed XI
1A. Gianniotis(G)
21G. Frimpong
41A. Szalai
20N. Opoku
2C. Winck Neto
16A. Baldursson
12A. Ben Ouanes
6Cem Üstündag
10H. Hajradinović
7M. Fall
77P. Guèye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kasimpasa
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Kasimpasa+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Kasimpasa · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Rizespor wins2 draws2 Kasimpasa wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 9 Feb 2025Kasimpasa3–2Rizespor
- 31 Aug 2024Rizespor0–1Kasimpasa
- 18 May 2024Rizespor0–0Kasimpasa
- 25 Dec 2023Kasimpasa2–2Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 33% | |
| Games | 5 | 6 |
| Rizespor | Kasimpasa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 33% | |
| Games | 5 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.40 | 4.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 9.17 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 3.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.50 | 4.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Rizespor | Kasimpasa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.70 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.30 | 4.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.33league 4.55
Red cards0.00league 0.25
Cards 5+17%league 50%
Fouls22.5league 26.5
Penalties0.17league 0.25
Home wins50%league 36%
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
KasimpasaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor5 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Kasimpasa6 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 19 · conceded 15
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
4
61-75
8
5
76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
