Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Rizespor were slight favourites.
Rizespor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (20 vs 14). Rizespor had 5.8 days of rest, Kayserispor 7 and had to travel 499 km.
Away travel499 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rizespor50%
Draw26%
Kayserispor25%
Rizespor50%
Draw26%
Kayserispor24%
Rizespor50%
Draw26%
Kayserispor24%
Rizespor42%
Draw27%
Kayserispor31%
Rizespor50%
Draw26%
Kayserispor25%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 11
Team strength
Rizespor
Kayserispor
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
22
AttackIn forecast
16
35
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporKayserispor
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.38
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
1.37
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
77%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.31
ShotsContext
11.46
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
27%
On target shareContext
35%
6.38
Shots in the boxContext
6.62
54%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.27
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.54
Shots allowedContext
12.92
5.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.54
4.42
BlocksContext
2.90
4.18
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
71%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
384
PassesContext
360
313
Accurate passesContext
288
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.60
14.23
FoulsContext
13.08
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.15
2.77
Yellow cardsContext
2.69
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.00
3.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
26%
On target shareContext
38%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
50%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.80
6.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
5.00
BlocksContext
3.13
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.57
76%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
387
PassesContext
367
317
Accurate passesContext
295
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.59
15.30
FoulsContext
14.10
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.90
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel499 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 499 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
6G. Papanikolaou
14T. Antalyalı
99E. Bulut
15V. Jurečka
19J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Sowe
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
15Y. Ait Bennasser
28R. Civelek
8L. Bénes
7Miguel Cardoso
10João Mendes
20Carlos Mané
9G. Onugkha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Kayserispor+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.00points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.71
Kayserispor · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 2.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | L 2–5 H | L 2–4 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 5–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 0–4 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 36 · 1.08 per game | 9 of 36 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Rizespor wins0 draws2 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 27 Apr 2025Kayserispor1–0Rizespor
- 1 Dec 2024Rizespor3–0Kayserispor
- 2 Mar 2024Rizespor3–0Kayserispor
- 21 Oct 2023Kayserispor3–1Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 2.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.85 | 3.38 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 62% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 54% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 69% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Rizespor | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.82 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.27 | 9.82 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 5/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 45% 5/11 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.85 | 2.77 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 4.47 | 4.69 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 8/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Rizespor | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 9.13 | 9.63 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.00 | 4.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 11 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 4.46
Red cards0.18league 0.27
Cards 5+18%league 47%
Fouls27.2league 26.0
Penalties0.36league 0.27
Home wins27%league 37%
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D27 Oct 25A · Samsunspor1–12
KayserisporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor13 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
4
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
7
76-90
Kayserispor13 games · scored 13 · conceded 31
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
9
31-45
2
6
46-60
4
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
4
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 11 · conceded 25
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
7
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
