Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Kocaelispor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Kocaelispor. Rizespor had 6.2 days of rest, Kocaelispor 5.2 and had to travel 1,113 km.
Away travel1,113 kmRest days6.2 · 5.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rizespor34%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor38%
Rizespor36%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor36%
Rizespor34%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor38%
Rizespor27%
Draw27%
Kocaelispor46%
Rizespor34%
Draw28%
Kocaelispor38%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeMehmet Turkmen
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 14
Team strength
Rizespor
Kocaelispor
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
22
AttackIn forecast
16
35
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKocaelispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporKocaelispor
1.18
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.95
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
73%
Scored inContext
64%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
11.73
ShotsContext
10.27
3.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
28%
On target shareContext
34%
6.41
Shots in the boxContext
6.23
53%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.28
OffsidesContext
2.38
13.95
Shots allowedContext
10.68
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.16
3.86
BlocksContext
3.52
3.58
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.47
68%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
376
PassesContext
363
307
Accurate passesContext
291
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.23
FoulsContext
14.48
11.91
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.23
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.63
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
70%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.70
ShotsContext
11.20
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
29%
On target shareContext
32%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.70
49%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.89
14.60
Shots allowedContext
8.80
5.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.43
3.60
BlocksContext
3.33
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.80
63%
Save rateContext
60%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
359
PassesContext
402
292
Accurate passesContext
330
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.10
FoulsContext
14.11
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,320 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kocaelispor
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,113 km1,388 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Kocaelispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 5.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,113 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,320 km | 1,388 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
27M. Sagnan
3S. Akaydin
54M. Pala
20Q. Laçi
14T. Antalyalı
10I. Olawoyin
7V. Mihăilă
11H. Dervişoğlu
17A. Awokoya-Mebude
Kocaelispor
Confirmed XI
35Gökhan Değirmenci(G)
21M. Haïdara
6H. Smolčić
5B. Balogh
22A. Oğuz
10K. Linetty
14Show
17D. Churlinov
7Daniel Agyei
99R. Rivas
9B. Petković
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kocaelispor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Kocaelispor+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.55
Kocaelispor · Away
0.90points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-5
- Scored
- 0.80
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| Genclerbirligi | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H | D 0–0 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 A |
| Kayserispor | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–5 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Samsunspor | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 5–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 20 of 63 · 0.95 per game | 29 of 63 · 1.38 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Rizespor wins1 draws0 Kocaelispor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 21 Sep 2025Kocaelispor1–1Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.18 | 0.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 1.95 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 32% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 41% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 36% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Rizespor | Kocaelispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 1.70 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.48 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 8.45 | 8.38 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 10/20 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 8/20 | 33% 7/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 5/20 | 14% 3/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.91 | 2.41 | |
| Match total | 4.46 | 4.73 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 68% 15/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Rizespor | Kocaelispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.10 | 9.37 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.20 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mehmet Turkmen Türkiye · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.07league 4.46
Red cards0.07league 0.23
Cards 5+29%league 47%
Fouls23.6league 26.0
Penalties0.14league 0.26
Home wins50%league 37%
Rizespor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 Aug 25H · Goztepe0–32
- W3 May 25H · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–03
Kocaelispor2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Oct 25H · Alanyaspor2–00
- L23 Aug 25A · Fenerbahce1–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor22 games · scored 26 · conceded 35
4
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
5
4
31-45
5
4
46-60
2
9
61-75
8
9
76-90
Kocaelispor22 games · scored 21 · conceded 22
3
0-15
4
16-30
5
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
4
61-75
6
8
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
4
4
76-90
Kocaelispor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
