Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Konyaspor. Rizespor had 6 days of rest, Konyaspor 3.9 and had to travel 773 km.
Away travel773 kmRest days6 · 3.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Rizespor40%
Draw26%
Konyaspor34%
Rizespor43%
Draw27%
Konyaspor30%
Rizespor40%
Draw26%
Konyaspor34%
Rizespor33%
Draw26%
Konyaspor41%
Rizespor40%
Draw26%
Konyaspor33%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOmer Faruk Turtay
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.67
- Matches 3
Team strength
Rizespor
Konyaspor
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
22
AttackIn forecast
13
35
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKonyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporKonyaspor
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.42
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.35
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
74%
Scored inContext
81%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
11.84
ShotsContext
12.58
3.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
30%
On target shareContext
33%
6.61
Shots in the boxContext
7.55
55%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.16
OffsidesContext
2.08
13.42
Shots allowedContext
12.32
4.66
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.93
BlocksContext
3.28
3.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.62
70%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
376
PassesContext
393
307
Accurate passesContext
322
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.61
FoulsContext
11.81
12.84
Fouls sufferedContext
12.58
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.39
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
11.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
36%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
61%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.00
BlocksContext
3.56
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
76%
Save rateContext
72%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
374
PassesContext
378
304
Accurate passesContext
304
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.40
FoulsContext
12.70
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,939 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Konyaspor
Rest3.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel773 km382 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Konyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Apr | 3.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 773 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,939 km | 382 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
10I. Olawoyin
50L. Augusto
20Q. Laçi
17A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe
Konyaspor
Confirmed XI
1D. Ertaş(G)
24A. Boşluk
5U. Yazğılı
20R. Bazoer
3K. Subaşı
21J. Jo
42M. Bjørlo
23Y. Andzouana
17Diogo Gonçalves
32S. Svendsen
70K. Olaigbe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Konyaspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Konyaspor-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.53points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-6
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.27
Konyaspor · Away
1.07points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-7
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.73
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kayserispor | L 0–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 2–2 AL 2–5 H | L 0–4 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Samsunspor | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A | D 2–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 1–0 HW 5–2 A | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 3–0 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Galatasaray | L 0–3 HL 1–3 A | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | D 2–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Points | 36 of 90 · 1.20 per game | 39 of 90 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Rizespor wins3 draws1 Konyaspor wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 6 Dec 2025Konyaspor1–1Rizespor
- 10 May 2025Konyaspor2–1Rizespor
- 14 Dec 2024Rizespor1–1Konyaspor
- 3 Feb 2024Rizespor0–0Konyaspor
- 16 Sep 2023Konyaspor1–2Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.42 | 1.35 | |
| Match goals | 2.74 | 2.65 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 52% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 65% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 19% | |
| Games | 31 | 31 |
| Rizespor | Konyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.89 | 4.87 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.93 | 4.87 | |
| Match total | 8.82 | 9.74 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 54% 15/28 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 12/28 | 52% 16/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 8/28 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.55 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.81 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 4.74 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 19/31 | 68% 21/31 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 13/31 | 39% 12/31 | |
| Rizespor | Konyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.80 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.90 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Omer Faruk Turtay Türkiye · 3 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.67league 4.46
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+0%league 46%
Fouls23.3league 26.0
Penalties0.67league 0.28
Home wins33%league 41%
RizesporNo previous matches with this referee.
Konyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Jan 26H · Eyüpspor1–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor31 games · scored 41 · conceded 44
6
4
0-15
3
6
16-30
8
5
31-45
9
5
46-60
3
9
61-75
12
15
76-90
Konyaspor31 games · scored 40 · conceded 42
1
2
0-15
10
6
16-30
5
12
31-45
6
9
46-60
3
7
61-75
15
6
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
61-75
6
6
76-90
Konyaspor10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
0-15
4
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
8
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
