Rizespor vs Samsunspor – 9 Apr 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 27 Thu, Apr 9 · 18:00 Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rize

Rizespor 12th · 30 pts · 27 played WWWLL

4–1Full time

Samsunspor 7th · 36 pts · 27 played DDLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Rizespor had 4.2 days of rest, Samsunspor 4.2 and had to travel 352 km.

Away travel352 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Rizespor39%

Draw27%

Samsunspor34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.28

Rizespor39%

Draw27%

Samsunspor33%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.27

Rizespor39%

Draw27%

Samsunspor34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.27

Rizespor32%

Draw27%

Samsunspor41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.44

Rizespor39%

Draw28%

Samsunspor33%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.24

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rize)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan

Cards per match 6.1
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 22

Team strength

Rizespor

Samsunspor

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

22 AttackIn forecast 15

35 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rizespor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Samsunspor

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Rizespor

Samsunspor

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.15

1.41 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.22

1.22 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.24 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.10

74% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.78 ShotsContext 12.59

3.52 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

30% On target shareContext 30%

6.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.74

55% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.27 OffsidesContext 1.96

13.37 Shots allowedContext 11.30

4.68 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.54

3.92 BlocksContext 3.17

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.77

70% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 53%

379 PassesContext 424

309 Accurate passesContext 353

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.78

13.44 FoulsContext 14.52

12.52 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

2.37 Yellow cardsContext 1.96

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.46

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.80 ShotsContext 12.60

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.11

37% On target shareContext 37%

6.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

54% Box shareContext 65%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.86

12.90 Shots allowedContext 9.90

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75

4.10 BlocksContext 2.89

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.63

65% Save rateContext 75%

50% PossessionIn forecast 62%

369 PassesContext 491

300 Accurate passesContext 415

81% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.87

12.80 FoulsContext 14.30

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rizespor

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,940 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Samsunspor

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel352 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Rizespor	Samsunspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Apr	4.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 5 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	352 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,940 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4	4

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rizespor Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

75Y. Fofana(G)

5C. Højer 27M. Sagnan 4A. Mocsi 54M. Pala

14T. Antalyalı

7V. Mihăilă 20Q. Laçi 10I. Olawoyin 50L. Augusto

9A. Sowe

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Samsunspor Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1O. Kocuk(G)

17L. Tómasson 4R. van Drongelen 24T. Borevković 2J. Mendes

10J. Ntcham 29A. Makoumbou

7E. Tavşan 21C. Holse 70T. Coulibaly

19P. Ndiaye

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Rizespor Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Samsunspor Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Rizespor+0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Samsunspor-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Rizespor · Home 1.31points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-6
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.31

Samsunspor · Away 1.31points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-4
Scored: 1.38
Conceded: 1.38

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Rizespor	Samsunspor
Fatih Karagümrük	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 AW 3–2 H
Trabzonspor	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	L 0–3 HD 1–1 A
Antalyaspor	W 1–0 HW 5–2 A	L 1–3 AL 1–2 H
Kasimpasa	W 3–0 AL 1–2 H	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Kocaelispor	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	D 0–0 HW 1–0 A
Genclerbirligi	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Galatasaray	L 0–3 HL 1–3 A	L 2–3 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H	L 0–2 H
Alanyaspor	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 H
Goztepe	L 1–3 AL 0–3 H	L 0–2 A
Besiktas	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Eyüpspor	W 3–0 H	W 1–0 H
Konyaspor	D 1–1 A	D 2–2 HW 3–1 A
Kayserispor	L 0–1 H	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A
Fenerbahce	L 2–5 H	L 2–3 AD 0–0 H
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Points	29 of 78 · 1.12 per game	35 of 78 · 1.35 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Rizespor wins1 draws2 Samsunspor wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.40 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

27 Oct 2025Samsunspor1–1Rizespor
22 Feb 2025Samsunspor2–3Rizespor
22 Sep 2024Rizespor0–1Samsunspor
23 Feb 2024Samsunspor3–0Rizespor
8 Oct 2023Rizespor1–0Samsunspor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Rizespor	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	1.15
Conceded per game	1.41	1.22
Match goals	2.63	2.37	2.69
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	52%	44%	50%
Over 3.5	26%	30%
Both teams scored	52%	59%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	26%	30%
Games	27	27

	Rizespor	Samsunspor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	0.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.30
Match goals	2.70	2.20	2.69
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Rizespor	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	3.63	5.46
Corners conceded	4.67	4.15
Match total	8.30	9.61	9.43
Over 8.5	46% 11/24	62% 16/26
Over 9.5	38% 9/24	46% 12/26
Over 10.5	25% 6/24	38% 10/26
Cards
Cards	2.44	2.04
Opponent cards	1.74	1.89
Match total	4.18	3.93	4.66
Over 3.5	59% 16/27	56% 15/27
Over 4.5	37% 10/27	37% 10/27

	Rizespor	Samsunspor	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	5.00
Corners conceded	4.33	4.78
Match total	8.55	9.78	9.43
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	3.70	4.50	4.66
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 22 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.86league 4.42

Red cards0.27league 0.22

Cards 5+73%league 45%

Fouls25.1league 26.1

Penalties0.36league 0.27

Home wins36%league 39%

Rizespor2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D16 Aug 25A · Alanyaspor0–02
L27 Apr 25A · Kayserispor0–15

Samsunspor3 with this referee

Record1-1-1 Cards · opp.3.7 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 1

D23 Nov 25A · Besiktas1–12
W1 Jun 25H · Kayserispor2–15
L21 Apr 25A · Alanyaspor0–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.