Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Rizespor. Rizespor had 7 days of rest, Samsunspor 4.9 and had to travel 352 km.
Away travel352 kmRest days7 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Rizespor40%
Draw24%
Samsunspor36%
Rizespor38%
Draw26%
Samsunspor36%
Rizespor40%
Draw24%
Samsunspor36%
Rizespor33%
Draw24%
Samsunspor44%
Rizespor40%
Draw25%
Samsunspor35%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOmer Faruk Turtay
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
Rizespor
Samsunspor
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
22
AttackIn forecast
15
35
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporSamsunspor
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
+0.69
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.50
ShotsContext
13.30
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
31%
On target shareContext
36%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.20
62%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.50
Shots allowedContext
15.00
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.44
BlocksContext
4.60
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
69%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
413
PassesContext
444
347
Accurate passesContext
374
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.30
FoulsContext
12.60
13.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
W
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,547 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 61 · 3 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
- W15 AugA · Konyaspor1–01.2 xPts
Samsunspor
D
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel352 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 42 · 1 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
- D17 AugH · Goztepe3–31.6 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2026-2027, 15 Aug | 4.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 352 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,547 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
17Z. Ariss
93M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
54M. Pala
14T. Antalyalı
10I. Olawoyin
23A. Kutucu
20Q. Laçi
11A. Awokoya-Mebude
9A. Sowe
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
6Ali Diabaté
24T. Borevković
2J. Mendes
20Y. Kayan
5C. Yüksel
4Elliot Watt
11E. Kılınç
14F. Kaya
30Saikuba Jarju
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Samsunspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Samsunspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
No home games yet this season.
Samsunspor · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Rizespor wins1 draws2 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.33
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 9 Apr 2026Rizespor4–1Samsunspor
- 27 Oct 2025Samsunspor1–1Rizespor
- 22 Feb 2025Samsunspor2–3Rizespor
- 22 Sep 2024Rizespor0–1Samsunspor
- 23 Feb 2024Samsunspor3–0Rizespor
- 8 Oct 2023Rizespor1–0Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 6.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Rizespor | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 4.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 12.00 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 2.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Rizespor | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 11.00 | 9.67 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.40 | 2.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Omer Faruk Turtay Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.00
Red cards0.00league 0.20
Cards 5+0%league 40%
Fouls25.8league 24.6
Penalties0.60league 0.40
Home wins40%league 40%
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 May 26H · Konyaspor3–21
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor1 games · scored 1 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Samsunspor1 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 21 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
8
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
