Rizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 21). Rizespor had 14.9 days of rest, Trabzonspor 14.9 and had to travel 67 km.
Away travel67 kmRest days14.9 · 14.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Rizespor33%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor40%
Rizespor33%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor40%
Rizespor33%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor40%
Rizespor26%
Draw26%
Trabzonspor48%
Rizespor33%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor40%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rize)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeHalil Umut Meler
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 18
Team strength
Rizespor
Trabzonspor
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
22
AttackIn forecast
54
35
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
RizesporTrabzonspor
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.63
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
71%
Scored inContext
88%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.00
ShotsContext
15.00
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
30%
On target shareContext
33%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
10.29
59%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.88
4.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
2.86
BlocksContext
3.71
3.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
68%
Save rateContext
92%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
384
PassesContext
392
312
Accurate passesContext
328
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.81
Team ratingContext
7.02
13.57
FoulsContext
12.13
13.86
Fouls sufferedContext
14.88
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.37
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
11.90
ShotsContext
15.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
42%
On target shareContext
32%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
10.56
64%
Box shareContext
62%
19%
ConversionContext
11%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.13
14.90
Shots allowedContext
11.90
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.89
3.70
BlocksContext
3.50
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.86
66%
Save rateContext
87%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
366
PassesContext
427
295
Accurate passesContext
366
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.04
13.00
FoulsContext
13.00
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Rizespor
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel67 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Rizespor |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 Oct | 14.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 67 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
5C. Højer
3S. Akaydin
4A. Mocsi
37M. Şahin
6G. Papanikolaou
20Q. Laçi
99E. Bulut
18M. Buljubašić
19J. Rak-Sakyi
15V. Jurečka
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
44A. Batagov
15S. Savić
20Wagner Pina
5O. Yokuşlu
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
70K. Olaigbe
42Christ Inao Oulaï
99F. da Silva
30E. Onuachu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Rizespor
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Rizespor-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Trabzonspor+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Rizespor · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Trabzonspor · Away
2.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Rizespor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | W 5–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Rizespor wins0 draws1 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 13 Apr 2025Trabzonspor2–0Rizespor
- 9 Nov 2024Rizespor3–1Trabzonspor
- 25 Jan 2024Rizespor1–0Trabzonspor
- 26 Aug 2023Trabzonspor2–3Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Rizespor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.38 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 25% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 13% | |
| Games | 7 | 8 |
| Rizespor | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 1.63 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 2.38 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 25% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 38% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 13% | |
| Games | 7 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Rizespor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.33 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.86 | |
| Match total | 7.66 | 9.15 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.63 | |
| Match total | 4.86 | 4.26 | 4.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Rizespor | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.22 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 9.00 | 9.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Halil Umut Meler Türkiye · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.56league 4.68
Red cards0.17league 0.28
Cards 5+56%league 54%
Fouls24.5league 27.0
Penalties0.17league 0.31
Home wins33%league 37%
Rizespor1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 May 25A · Besiktas2–13
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 May 25A · Kasimpasa1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Rizespor7 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Trabzonspor8 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
8
6
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 17 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
46-60
2
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
