Sabah FA
Attack—
Defense risk—
UEFA Champions League 2026-2027
Qualifying rounds Tue, Aug 11 · 17:00
Bank Respublika Arena, Masazir
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel3,354 kmRest days6 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Sabah FA—%
Draw—%
Aarhus—%
Weather (Masazir)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 110
Team strength
Sabah FA
Aarhus
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
26
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
30
AttackIn forecast
36
27
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAarhus
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sabah FAAarhus
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
100%
Scored inContext
100%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.67
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
37%
On target shareContext
37%
—
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
—
Box shareContext
56%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
16.67
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
—
BlocksContext
4.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
33%
Save rateContext
70%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
—
PassesContext
401
—
Accurate passesContext
318
—
Pass accuracyContext
79%
—
Team ratingContext
6.96
—
FoulsContext
12.67
—
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.33
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
—
Goals minus xGContext
+0.38
70%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
—
ShotsContext
13.70
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
37%
On target shareContext
41%
—
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
—
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
—
OffsidesContext
1.63
—
Shots allowedContext
13.90
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
—
BlocksContext
3.40
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
33%
Save rateContext
76%
—
PossessionIn forecast
50%
—
PassesContext
420
—
Accurate passesContext
345
—
Pass accuracyContext
82%
—
Team ratingContext
7.04
—
FoulsContext
10.90
—
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sabah FA
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km6,709 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Aarhus
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel3,354 km1,206 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sabah FA |
Aarhus |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 5 Aug | 6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 5 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 3,354 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 6,709 km | 1,206 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sabah FA
Confirmed XI
92S. Pokatilov(G)
27T. Puchacz
5R. Daşdəmirov
3S. Solvet
80A. Zedadka
13I. Lepinjica
7U. Rahmonaliyev
20J. Mickels
10A. Isaev
21V. Simić
99P. Mbina
Aarhus
Confirmed XI
21Mads Hedenstad(G)
19E. Kahl
25C. Rösler
26J. Andersen
16J. Jønsson
11N. Links
10Kristian Arnstad
4M. Knudsen
29R. Carstensen
28James Bogere
31T. Bech
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sabah FA
Absences are shown before kick-off
Aarhus
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Sabah FA · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.00
Aarhus · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Sabah FA wins0 draws1 Aarhus wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 5 Aug 2026Aarhus2–1Sabah FA
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sabah FA | Aarhus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 3 |
| Sabah FA | Aarhus | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.67 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 67% | |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sabah FA | Aarhus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 11.33 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.67 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Sabah FA | Aarhus | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.20 | 10.24 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.00 | 4.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 110 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.51league 4.27
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+37%league 42%
Fouls24.6league 25.4
Penalties0.40league 0.33
Home wins41%league 51%
Sabah FANo previous matches with this referee.
AarhusNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sabah FA5 games · scored 8 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Aarhus2 games · scored 3 · conceded 5
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
76-90
Sabah FA10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Aarhus9 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.