UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs Play-offs Thu, Aug 27 · 17:00 Mikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni, Tbilisi
Saburtalo 23rd · 0 pts · 1 played
First leg0–4 1–2Full time
Jagiellonia 2nd · 3 pts · 1 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,054 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Saburtalo—%
Draw—%
Jagiellonia—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Tbilisi)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalySimone Sozza
  • Cards per match 4.3
  • Penalties per match 0.46
  • Matches 97

Team strength

SaburtaloJagiellonia
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
6 Current StrengthIn forecast 31
7 AttackIn forecast 27
7 DefenceIn forecast 28
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Saburtalo

Attack—
Defense risk—

Jagiellonia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SaburtaloJagiellonia
— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —
— Goals concededVia Att/Def —
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
— Scored inContext —
— Clean sheetsContext —
— ShotsContext —
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
— On target shareContext —
— Shots in the boxContext —
— Box shareContext —
— ConversionContext —
— OffsidesContext —
— Shots allowedContext —
— On target allowedVia Att/Def —
— BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext —
— Save rateContext —
— PossessionIn forecast —
— PassesContext —
— Accurate passesContext —
— Pass accuracyContext —
— Team ratingContext —
— FoulsContext —
— Fouls sufferedContext —
— Yellow cardsContext —
— Red cardsContext —
This league season, per match
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
— xGVia Att/Def 1.48
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83
— Goals minus xGContext +0.52
60% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 40%
— ShotsContext 14.43
— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.86
— On target shareContext 48%
— Shots in the boxContext 8.86
— Box shareContext 63%
— ConversionContext 13%
— OffsidesContext 2.00
— Shots allowedContext 14.71
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
— BlocksContext 5.00
— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29
— Save rateContext 82%
— PossessionIn forecast 53%
— PassesContext 429
— Accurate passesContext 353
— Pass accuracyContext 82%
— Team ratingContext 6.97
— FoulsContext 13.33
— Fouls sufferedContext 13.67
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Saburtalo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,109 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Jagiellonia
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel2,054 km3,569 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Saburtalo Jagiellonia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - Play-offs, 20 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,054 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways4,109 km3,569 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 11 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one—20.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Saburtalo Confirmed XI
4-3-3
31G. Makaridze(G)
5J. Jinjolava 4V. Selimović 25A. Amisulashvili 40G. Kobuladze
14A. Alhassan 6N. Dadiani 8B. Kardava
10Zviad Natchkebia 19N. Sikharulashvili 17S. Ende
Jagiellonia Confirmed XI
4-3-3
50S. Abramowicz(G)
23Guilherme Montóia 4Y. Kobayashi 5Bernardo Vital 15N. Wojtuszek
11Jesús Imaz 6T. Romanczuk 19A. Klynge
7K. Szmyt 99N. Prelec 10J. Agbonifo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Saburtalo Absences are shown before kick-off
Jagiellonia Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Saburtalo · Home No home games yet this season.
Jagiellonia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Saburtalo wins0 draws1 Jagiellonia wins
Goals per game0.00 – 4.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%
  • 20 Aug 2026Jagiellonia4–0Saburtalo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

SaburtaloJagielloniaForecast
Scored per game 0.004.00
Conceded per game 4.000.00
Match goals 4.004.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%100%
Over 3.5 100%100%
Both teams scored 0%0%
Clean sheets 0%100%
Failed to score 100%0%
Games11
SaburtaloJagielloniaForecast
Scored per game 0.332.33
Conceded per game 2.330.67
Match goals 2.673.00
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 33%67%
Over 3.5 33%33%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 0%33%
Failed to score 67%0%
Games33

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SaburtaloJagielloniaLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.00
Corners conceded4.006.00
Match total10.0010.009.50
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 10.50% 0/10% 0/1
Cards
Cards5.001.00
Opponent cards1.005.00
Match total6.006.004.08
Over 3.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
Over 4.5100% 1/1100% 1/1
SaburtaloJagielloniaLeague
Corners
Corners won8.504.50
Corners conceded2.504.50
Match total11.009.009.50
Over 8.5100% 2/263% 5/8
Over 9.5100% 2/238% 3/8
Over 10.550% 1/213% 1/8
Cards
Cards3.102.00
Opponent cards1.902.20
Match total5.004.204.08
Over 3.580% 8/1080% 8/10
Over 4.570% 7/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Simone Sozza Italy · 97 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.16league 3.83
Red cards0.16league 0.25
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls24.8league 22.8
Penalties0.46league 0.50
Home wins39%league 58%
Saburtalo

No previous matches with this referee.

Jagiellonia

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Saburtalo1 games · scored 0 · conceded 4
0-15
16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Jagiellonia1 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Saburtalo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 5 61-75
3 4 76-90
Jagiellonia10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
3 2 0-15
2 2 16-30
7 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.