Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 23). Absences weigh more on Samsunspor. Samsunspor had 8.1 days of rest, Alanyaspor 8.1 and had to travel 646 km.
Away travel646 kmRest days8.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Samsunspor54%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor22%
Samsunspor54%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor21%
Samsunspor54%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor21%
Samsunspor46%
Draw26%
Alanyaspor28%
Samsunspor54%
Draw25%
Alanyaspor22%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeKadir Saglam
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 9
Team strength
Samsunspor
Alanyaspor
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
15
AttackIn forecast
18
18
DefenceIn forecast
24
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlanyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporAlanyaspor
1.46
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.92
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.08
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.04
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.04
85%
Scored inContext
69%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
13.46
ShotsContext
11.69
4.54
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
34%
On target shareContext
32%
8.15
Shots in the boxContext
7.31
60%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.69
Shots allowedContext
11.08
3.15
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.15
3.18
BlocksContext
3.13
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.92
80%
Save rateContext
70%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
386
PassesContext
391
316
Accurate passesContext
323
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.82
14.00
FoulsContext
12.23
10.54
Fouls sufferedContext
14.69
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.30
ShotsContext
12.40
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
39%
On target shareContext
35%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
68%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.10
Shots allowedContext
11.70
2.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.38
BlocksContext
2.86
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
388
PassesContext
393
313
Accurate passesContext
325
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.83
12.10
FoulsContext
11.50
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.30
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,238 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Alanyaspor
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel646 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Alanyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Nov | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 646 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,238 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tomasson
4R. van Drongelen
24T. Borevković
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
7A. Musaba
6E. Aydin
21C. Holse
11E. Kılınç
19P. Ndiaye
Alanyaspor
Confirmed XI
1M. Taşkıran(G)
50Ü. Akdağ
5F. Aliti
3Nuno Lima
11Ruan
20F. Aksoy
42G. Makouta
94F. Hadërgjonaj
14I. Hagi
12M. Elia
16U. Hwang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Alanyaspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Alanyaspor+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-1
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 0.86
Alanyaspor · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-2
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Besiktas | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Eyüpspor | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Rizespor | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 H |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 18 of 30 · 1.80 per game | 11 of 30 · 1.10 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Samsunspor wins2 draws2 Alanyaspor wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.525%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 21 Apr 2025Alanyaspor1–0Samsunspor
- 24 Nov 2024Samsunspor1–1Alanyaspor
- 18 May 2024Samsunspor1–1Alanyaspor
- 25 Dec 2023Alanyaspor3–1Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.46 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.92 | 1.08 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.08 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 69% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 38% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 54% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Samsunspor | Alanyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.20 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.58 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.17 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.75 | 8.70 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 9/12 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 7/12 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 58% 7/12 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.08 | |
| Match total | 4.39 | 4.23 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Samsunspor | Alanyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.77 | 9.50 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.20 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kadir Saglam Türkiye · 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.44
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+33%league 47%
Fouls27.2league 26.1
Penalties0.22league 0.28
Home wins44%league 36%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Alanyaspor2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W31 Aug 25H · Besiktas2–01
- W31 May 25H · Sivasspor2–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor13 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Alanyaspor13 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 18 · conceded 6
5
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Alanyaspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
