Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 16). Samsunspor had 12.8 days of rest, Antalyaspor 13.8 and had to travel 688 km.
Away travel688 kmRest days12.8 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Samsunspor58%
Draw23%
Antalyaspor19%
Samsunspor57%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor19%
Samsunspor58%
Draw23%
Antalyaspor19%
Samsunspor50%
Draw26%
Antalyaspor25%
Samsunspor57%
Draw24%
Antalyaspor19%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TurkeyArda Kardesler
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
Samsunspor
Antalyaspor
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
15
AttackIn forecast
11
18
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntalyaspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporAntalyaspor
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
75%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.67
ShotsContext
9.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
34%
On target shareContext
53%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
54%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.75
8.33
Shots allowedContext
14.00
2.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
2.67
BlocksContext
3.25
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
100%
Save rateContext
80%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
406
PassesContext
359
343
Accurate passesContext
284
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.67
FoulsContext
11.75
9.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.70
ShotsContext
8.90
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
39%
On target shareContext
40%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
5.78
60%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.44
Shots allowedContext
11.80
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.11
BlocksContext
2.67
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
79%
Save rateContext
72%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
395
PassesContext
387
326
Accurate passesContext
316
83%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.90
FoulsContext
12.20
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest12.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km571 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antalyaspor
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel688 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Antalyaspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13.8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 688 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 571 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
18Z. Yavru
37Ľ. Šatka
4R. van Drongelen
17L. Tómasson
29A. Makoumbou
10J. Ntcham
7A. Musaba
21C. Holse
77Afonso Sousa
9M. Mouandilmadji
Antalyaspor
Confirmed XI
1Julián(G)
7B. Balcı
30L. Giannetti
14G. Dzhikiya
3K. Paal
6S. Dikmen
23Jesper Ceesay
10A. Ömür
8R. Safouri
26N. Storm
22S. van de Streek
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antalyaspor
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antalyaspor+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Antalyaspor · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Antalyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Samsunspor wins0 draws2 Antalyaspor wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 5 Apr 2025Antalyaspor2–1Samsunspor
- 4 Nov 2024Samsunspor2–0Antalyaspor
- 12 Feb 2024Samsunspor2–0Antalyaspor
- 23 Sep 2023Antalyaspor2–0Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
| Samsunspor | Antalyaspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 3 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.25 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 3.25 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Samsunspor | Antalyaspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 11.10 | 8.50 | 9.18 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 3.60 | 4.25 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Arda Kardesler Turkey · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.00league 4.10
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+20%league 40%
Fouls23.0league 25.5
Penalties0.60league 0.33
Home wins60%league 40%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
Antalyaspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L12 May 25A · Kayserispor1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor3 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Antalyaspor4 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Antalyaspor10 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
