Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Besiktas were slight favourites.
Besiktas were the stronger side on L90 Strength (44 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Samsunspor had 5.9 days of rest, Besiktas 8.9 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days5.9 · 8.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Samsunspor30%
Draw25%
Besiktas45%
Samsunspor32%
Draw27%
Besiktas41%
Samsunspor31%
Draw25%
Besiktas44%
Samsunspor23%
Draw24%
Besiktas53%
Samsunspor30%
Draw26%
Besiktas44%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeGurcan Hasova
- Cards per match 6.3
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 4
Team strength
Samsunspor
Besiktas
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
15
AttackIn forecast
60
18
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBesiktas
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporBesiktas
1.17
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.83
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.03
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
72%
Scored inContext
86%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
12.62
ShotsContext
15.97
4.19
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.17
30%
On target shareContext
39%
7.79
Shots in the boxContext
10.38
60%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.92
OffsidesContext
2.48
11.28
Shots allowedContext
11.45
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.20
BlocksContext
2.93
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.72
67%
Save rateContext
72%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
429
PassesContext
422
359
Accurate passesContext
349
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.91
14.55
FoulsContext
12.97
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
11.93
1.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.28
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
16.50
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
36%
On target shareContext
38%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
67%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.78
10.60
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.11
2.90
BlocksContext
2.40
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
68%
Save rateContext
75%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
486
PassesContext
427
413
Accurate passesContext
354
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.98
14.80
FoulsContext
13.70
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,941 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Besiktas
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel619 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Besiktas |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 13 Apr | 8.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 10 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,941 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
10J. Ntcham
29A. Makoumbou
11E. Kılınç
21C. Holse
70T. Coulibaly
9Marius
Besiktas
Confirmed XI
30E. Destanoğlu(G)
33R. Yılmaz
14O. Uduokhai
12E. Agbadou
62A. Murillo
23K. Asllani
19E. Touré
15Junior Olaitan
10O. Kökçü
11C. Ünder
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Besiktas
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Besiktas+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.36points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-7-3
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.07
Besiktas · Away
1.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-4-3
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Besiktas |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Rizespor | L 1–4 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Konyaspor | D 2–2 HW 3–1 A | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Kayserispor | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Fenerbahce | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 AL 2–3 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | D 0–0 HD 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | D 0–0 AW 3–2 H | W 2–0 A |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–3 AL 1–2 H | W 4–2 HW 3–1 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A | D 3–3 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Goztepe | L 0–2 A | W 4–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | L 0–2 H | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Alanyaspor | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Points | 38 of 84 · 1.36 per game | 54 of 84 · 1.93 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
0 Samsunspor wins3 draws2 Besiktas wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.20
Over 2.520%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 23 Nov 2025Besiktas1–1Samsunspor
- 18 Jan 2025Besiktas0–0Samsunspor
- 11 Aug 2024Samsunspor0–2Besiktas
- 13 Apr 2024Besiktas1–1Samsunspor
- 26 Nov 2023Samsunspor1–2Besiktas
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.17 | 1.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.48 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 59% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 59% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 28% | 14% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Samsunspor | Besiktas | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.68 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.46 | |
| Match total | 9.79 | 10.17 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 18/28 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 13/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 11/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.03 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.97 | 3.07 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.48 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 55% 16/29 | 79% 23/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 11/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Samsunspor | Besiktas | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 10.20 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gurcan Hasova Türkiye · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 4.45
Red cards0.25league 0.22
Cards 5+100%league 45%
Fouls24.3league 26.2
Penalties0.50league 0.28
Home wins25%league 39%
SamsunsporNo previous matches with this referee.
BesiktasNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor29 games · scored 34 · conceded 38
6
3
0-15
2
7
16-30
5
7
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
4
61-75
11
11
76-90
Besiktas29 games · scored 53 · conceded 34
12
3
0-15
6
6
16-30
11
6
31-45
9
6
46-60
7
5
61-75
8
8
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
6
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
