Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Samsunspor. Samsunspor had 5.9 days of rest, Çorum FK 6 and had to travel 142 km.
Away travel142 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Samsunspor49%
Draw23%
Çorum FK28%
Samsunspor48%
Draw25%
Çorum FK27%
Samsunspor50%
Draw23%
Çorum FK27%
Samsunspor41%
Draw24%
Çorum FK35%
Samsunspor48%
Draw24%
Çorum FK28%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAli Sansalan
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.58
- Matches 19
Team strength
Samsunspor
Çorum FK
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
15
AttackIn forecast
31
18
DefenceIn forecast
36
28
Form indexContext
29
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisÇorum FK
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporÇorum FK
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.98
50%
Scored inContext
75%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.00
ShotsContext
13.50
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
19%
On target shareContext
32%
8.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
59%
Box shareContext
48%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
18.00
Shots allowedContext
17.50
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
4.50
BlocksContext
7.50
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
77%
Save rateContext
67%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
493
PassesContext
494
413
Accurate passesContext
430
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.25
FoulsContext
11.00
14.25
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.75
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.77
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
+0.98
70%
Scored inContext
75%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.40
ShotsContext
13.50
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
48%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
3.14
OffsidesContext
2.50
16.30
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
4.60
BlocksContext
—
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.33
75%
Save rateContext
67%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
463
PassesContext
494
389
Accurate passesContext
430
84%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.70
FoulsContext
11.00
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.25
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
DWLL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,537 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 28 · 4 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected
Çorum FK
DLLW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel142 km1,016 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 4 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Çorum FK |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 142 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,537 km | 1,016 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
34G. Guarino
16S. Eraković
2J. Mendes
8S. Onur
5C. Yüksel
11E. Kılınç
20Y. Kayan
30Saikuba Jarju
9M. Mouandilmadji
Çorum FK
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
24A. Borza
6H. Smolčić
4S. Saatçı
11G. Sazdağı
20Y. Ramadani
89A. Kyziridis
16Fredy
10M. Diomande
7C. Ünder
19J. Ramírez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Çorum FK
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-1.5 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Çorum FK+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Çorum FK · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Çorum FK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 4.00 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Samsunspor | Çorum FK | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 4.00 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 75% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Çorum FK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 11.33 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Samsunspor | Çorum FK | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.33 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 9.66 | 11.33 | 9.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.50 | 3.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 1/4 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ali Sansalan Türkiye · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.84league 3.57
Red cards0.21league 0.16
Cards 5+58%league 38%
Fouls25.4league 26.1
Penalties0.58league 0.38
Home wins63%league 46%
Samsunspor2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Nov 25A · Konyaspor3–12
- D17 Sep 25H · Kasimpasa0–04
Çorum FKNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor4 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Çorum FK4 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
7
4
76-90
Çorum FK4 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
