Samsunspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Samsunspor were slight favourites.
Samsunspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 18). Samsunspor had 7.2 days of rest, Eyüpspor 6 and had to travel 619 km.
Away travel619 kmRest days7.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1
Samsunspor59%
Draw23%
Eyüpspor18%
Samsunspor59%
Draw23%
Eyüpspor18%
Samsunspor59%
Draw23%
Eyüpspor18%
Samsunspor52%
Draw25%
Eyüpspor23%
Samsunspor59%
Draw23%
Eyüpspor18%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Samsun)
No weather data yet
RefereeYasin Kol
- Cards per match 5.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 25
Team strength
Samsunspor
Eyüpspor
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
15
AttackIn forecast
9
18
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEyüpspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SamsunsporEyüpspor
1.55
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.55
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.27
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
82%
Scored inContext
36%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
13.09
ShotsContext
11.45
4.18
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.55
32%
On target shareContext
31%
7.91
Shots in the boxContext
6.36
60%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.91
12.45
Shots allowedContext
12.73
3.45
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
3.10
BlocksContext
3.90
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
81%
Save rateContext
75%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
383
PassesContext
386
314
Accurate passesContext
318
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.27
FoulsContext
10.45
10.36
Fouls sufferedContext
14.82
2.27
Yellow cardsContext
2.18
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
80%
Scored inContext
30%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.70
ShotsContext
11.00
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
37%
On target shareContext
33%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
66%
Box shareContext
56%
15%
ConversionContext
5%
2.71
OffsidesContext
3.00
13.20
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.11
BlocksContext
3.56
2.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
82%
Save rateContext
82%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
361
PassesContext
381
288
Accurate passesContext
312
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.50
FoulsContext
10.60
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
15.10
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Samsunspor
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,005 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Eyüpspor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel619 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Samsunspor |
Eyüpspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Süper Lig 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 3 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,005 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Samsunspor
Confirmed XI
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tomasson
4R. van Drongelen
37Ľ. Šatka
18Z. Yavru
29A. Makoumbou
7A. Musaba
5C. Yüksel
21C. Holse
11E. Kılınç
19P. Ndiaye
Eyüpspor
Confirmed XI
1Marcos Felipe(G)
18N. Mujakić
5E. Ortakaya
6R. Yalçın
2Calegari
10K. Demirbay
33T. Stepanenko
40P. Ampem
30Y. Kayan
11S. Gürler
9M. Thiam
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Samsunspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Eyüpspor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Samsunspor-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eyüpspor+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Samsunspor · Home
1.50points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-1
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.00
Eyüpspor · Away
0.20points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-4
- Scored
- 0.20
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Samsunspor | Eyüpspor |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | W 3–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| Kasimpasa | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Antalyaspor | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Trabzonspor | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Kocaelispor | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Genclerbirligi | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 11 of 18 · 1.83 per game | 3 of 18 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Samsunspor wins0 draws1 Eyüpspor wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 4 May 2025Samsunspor3–0Eyüpspor
- 8 Dec 2024Eyüpspor3–0Samsunspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Samsunspor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.55 | 0.55 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.27 | |
| Match goals | 2.55 | 1.82 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 55% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 27% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 9% | |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 27% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 64% | |
| Games | 11 | 11 |
| Samsunspor | Eyüpspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 20% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 70% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Samsunspor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.82 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.09 | 10.10 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 9/11 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 64% 7/11 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.36 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.27 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 4.54 | 4.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 7/11 | 64% 7/11 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 5/11 | 36% 4/11 | |
| Samsunspor | Eyüpspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.10 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.90 | 9.55 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.70 | 4.86 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Yasin Kol 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.16league 4.58
Red cards0.52league 0.26
Cards 5+64%league 50%
Fouls27.0league 26.1
Penalties0.36league 0.26
Home wins32%league 38%
Samsunspor2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.5.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W26 Apr 25A · BB Bodrumspor2–14
- W16 Feb 25A · Konyaspor1–06
Eyüpspor3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.3
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds1
- D16 Mar 25A · Goztepe1–16
- W19 Jan 25H · Alanyaspor3–01
- W3 Nov 24H · Hatayspor2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Samsunspor11 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Eyüpspor11 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
4
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
6
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 5 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
